Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) – October 29, 2025

• APTJPY opened at ¥526.7 and closed at ¥511.6, with a 24-hour high of ¥530.4 and low of ¥506.9.
• Price formed multiple bearish engulfing and rejection patterns, especially around ¥530.4–527.3 and ¥515.6–512.5.
• RSI reached overbought levels (>70) early in the session and dropped into oversold territory by 12:00 ET, signaling a strong bearish momentum shift.
• Volatility spiked in the early session, then contracted during the overnight consolidation before expanding again in the final hours.
• Turnover surged to ¥3,330,430 during a ¥14.7 rally from ¥514.9 to ¥519.6, suggesting renewed liquidity and possible short-covering.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at ¥526.7 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at ¥511.6 at 12:00 ET on October 29, reaching a high of ¥530.4 and a low of ¥506.9. The pair saw a total 24-hour volume of 32,764.8 APT and a notional turnover of ¥14,188,484.64, with significant intraday swings and momentum shifts evident from the OHLCV data.

The 24-hour price action showed a strong bearish bias, starting with a short-lived rally to ¥530.4 before a sharp selloff to ¥509.4. Notable candlestick formations included bearish engulfing patterns around ¥530.4 and ¥515.6, as well as multiple rejection bars at ¥511.9–510.3. These patterns suggest key resistance levels were rejected, reinforcing the downward bias. A doji at ¥511.2 and consolidation near ¥508.6–509.9 also signaled indecision and potential exhaustion in the short-term bearish move.

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Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a strong bearish crossover, with price closing below both the 20 and 50-period moving averages. The daily chart (not fully displayed) would likely show a longer-term bearish trend with price below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing a continuation of the broader bear market. The convergence of short-term and long-term bearish momentum suggests caution for buyers and support of short-biased strategies.

MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early part of the session, with the histogram turning negative and diverging from the price during the afternoon consolidation. RSI dropped sharply from overbought levels (>70) to oversold territory (<30), confirming the strength of the bearish move. The divergence between RSI and MACD indicated a possible near-term bottoming process, but with no clear reversal formation yet.
Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early sell-off and then contracted during the overnight consolidation, suggesting a potential turning point. Price closed near the lower Bollinger Band at 12:00 ET, indicating that volatility is still low and that the next move could be dictated by a breakout or a retest of recent support levels. The bands may expand again if the downward trend continues or if a bullish reversal forms near ¥508.4–511.2.
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Volume and turnover spiked during two key price movements: the selloff to ¥509.4 and the rally to ¥519.6. The largest single-candle turnover occurred at ¥519.6, with ¥3,330,430 in notional value, indicating strong buying interest near the previous support-turned-resistance level. Price and turnover were aligned during the selloff, but diverged during the rally, suggesting that the move to ¥519.6 was more driven by accumulation rather than broad-based buying.
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 24-hour move from ¥530.4 to ¥506.9, the 61.8% level is approximately ¥515.4, which aligns with a key swing low and consolidation point. The 38.2% level is around ¥523.7, which was also a key support zone during the session. Price’s failure to hold above ¥515.4 suggests a potential continuation toward the 23.6% level at ¥528.7, though this would require a significant shift in momentum.
Backtest Hypothesis
For a backtest using this pair, a 14-period RSI overbought threshold of >70 would align with the morning’s early overbought conditions. Given the sharp drop in RSI and MACD divergence, an objective "next support" rule could be to close the short at the most recent swing-low within the last 7 days. A trailing stop could be added to lock in profits if the price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ¥515.4. This setup would allow the strategy to capture the full 2025–2029 trend while incorporating technical support and momentum signals.

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