Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) – 24-Hour Analysis

Summary
• APTJPY declines from 497.3 to 472.6 before rebounding to 486.1, showing bearish pressure and key support testing.
• High volatility and volume spike at 00:15 ET suggest a critical bearish move.
• Momentum slows near 483–486 level, suggesting potential consolidation or reversal.

APTJPY opened at 497.3 on 2025-11-11 12:00 ET and dropped to a low of 472.6 at 00:15 ET. It closed at 486.1 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET, with total volume of 6,846.43 and turnover of approximately 3,366,969.47 JPY. The pair exhibited strong bearish momentum early in the session, followed by a recovery phase toward the end of the 24-hour window.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern reveals a strong bearish bias with a prominent bearish engulfing pattern at 20:30 ET–00:15 ET. Price tested key support at 472.6, bouncing back with a long green candle at 03:45 ET. No significant bullish reversal patterns are evident, but consolidation around 484.8–486.9 suggests possible short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, confirming a bearish trend. On the daily chart, while long-term MAs (50/100/200) are not fully visible from the provided data, the recent daily move implies a potential bearish crossover in the near term.

MACD & RSI

MACD lines showed bearish divergence during the early morning decline, with a bearish crossover around 00:15 ET. RSI dropped to 30–35 during the low at 472.6, signaling oversold conditions. However, it rebounded to mid-50s by the session close, indicating potential consolidation.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 00:15 ET–04:15 ET window, with price falling well below the lower band at 472.6. The subsequent rebound pulled price back into the mid-band range, suggesting a potential retest of the upper band near 486.9.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 00:15 ET with a turnover of 280.56, coinciding with the 472.6 low. This confirmed bearish conviction. However, volume declined during the recovery phase, suggesting limited follow-through buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the key retracement levels are 38.2% at 482.2 and 61.8% at 477.8. The 61.8% level was tested at 20:30 ET but failed to hold. Price rebounded from the 472.6 level (potentially a 78.6% or extension level), indicating a strong support cluster around 475–477.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves detecting bearish engulfing patterns followed by a confirmation candle to enter short positions. Given the bearish engulfing formation from 20:30 ET to 00:15 ET, this strategy would have triggered a short signal at 480.9 with a stop above 484.3. A target could be placed at 474.8–472.6, aligning with the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels. The volume surge during the breakdown confirms the validity of the pattern, increasing the probability of a successful short trade.

Forward Outlook and Risk

APTJPY appears to be consolidating in the 483–486 range after the sharp decline. A retest of 472.6 or a break above 486.9 could signal the next directional move. Investors should closely monitor volume behavior and RSI divergence for early signs of trend exhaustion or continuation. As always, leverage and position size should be carefully managed due to heightened volatility.