Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• Price opened at 497.7, surged to 521.8, and closed near 494.1.
• Strong volume during the overnight session, with a key bearish breakdown below 500.0.
• RSI showed overbought levels early, but failed to sustain above 50, signaling bearish momentum.

APTJPY opened at 497.7 at 12:00 ET-1 and closed at 494.1 at 12:00 ET today, with a high of 521.8 and a low of 490.4 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume amounted to 8,601.06, while notional turnover reached approximately ¥4,260,600. The price displayed volatile swings, particularly during the Asian and U.S. overnight sessions, followed by a broad consolidation toward the close.

Structure & Formations

Price action on APTJPY revealed a bearish breakdown below the 500.0 psychological level, following a failed bullish breakout in the early hours. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 03:45 ET-1 (2025-1111 034500), with the 521.8 high acting as a key resistance level. The formation appears to have triggered profit-taking and short-covering. The 490.4 low became immediate support, though it failed to hold for long, with price retreating below 500.0 by the morning.

Support & Resistance

Key support levels were identified at 490.4, 498.0, and 503.1. Resistance was found at 500.0, 505.1, and 514.6. The breakdown of the 500.0 level raises the probability that the next significant support lies at the 490.4–498.0 range. Resistance is likely to face renewed pressure if the price fails to stabilize above 500.0.

Candlestick Patterns

A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 034500 candle (515.5 to 516.2), which coincided with a volume spike of 63.57. Another bearish harami appeared at 054500 (502.2), suggesting a potential short-term top. No strong bullish continuation patterns emerged, and the overall bias shifted decisively to the downside following the 500.0 breakdown.

Moving Averages & Momentum Indicators

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA was above 500.0 at the start of the period, while the 50-period MA crossed below it during the session. This crossover confirmed the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 100- and 200-period MAs, signaling a broader bearish trend.

The MACD line turned negative in the early hours and remained below the signal line, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The histogram showed a broad divergence as the price surged to 521.8 but failed to follow through, indicating weakening bullish conviction.

The RSI reached 70+ levels at the 013000 candle (512.1 to 521.8), but quickly fell below 50 within the next two hours. This suggests that the rally was overbought and lacked follow-through, which may have triggered selling pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper Bollinger Band during the overnight highs, reaching as high as 521.8. However, the subsequent move down saw a sharp contraction in the bands around 050000 (502.2), signaling potential consolidation and the possibility of a continuation of the bearish trend. By the close, the price was near the lower band, suggesting a likely continuation of the downward trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1,343.98 at 013000 (512.1 to 515.7) as price moved toward 521.8. This volume was not sustained, indicating a false break higher. The largest volume occurred during the overnight rally and the consolidation phase in the morning. Notional turnover spiked to over ¥7 million at the 013000 candle but declined as the trend reversed.

A divergence between price and volume can be observed during the early morning hours, where price moved higher but volume declined. This weak volume confirmation reduced the bullish signal and suggested a potential reversal.

Forward-Looking View

Over the next 24 hours, APTJPY could test the 490.4 support level or find a short-term bottom around 498.0. A rebound above 500.0 would be a positive sign, but bearish momentum appears to have taken hold. Traders should remain cautious as volatility remains elevated, and sharp moves are likely.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the 5-day “Bullish Engulfing OR Morning Star” strategy on APTJPY from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-11 produced negative results, with a total return of approximately -57% and an annualized loss exceeding 60%. The average trade return was -5%, and the Sharpe ratio of -1.7 confirmed poor risk-adjusted performance. This suggests that relying on these candlestick patterns in isolation with a fixed 5-day hold is not a viable strategy on this pair. Traders may need to incorporate volume confirmation, trend alignment, or dynamic exits to improve results.