Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) on 2025-11-08

Summary
• APTJPY closed at 485.1, up from 478.2 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Price surged past 500.6 but retreated to form a bearish harami near the close.
• Strong volume surges at 08:45 ET and 16:15 ET suggest potential reversal attempts.

APTJPY opened at 478.2 on 2025-11-07 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as 500.6 before closing at 485.1 on 2025-11-08 at 12:00 ET. The total volume for the 24-hour period was 12,266.98 units, with a notional turnover of approximately 5,999,146.5 JPY. The price action reflected heightened volatility, especially during the late evening and early morning hours, where sharp corrections and rallies were observed.

The structure of the price over the past 24 hours suggests a key resistance level forming around the 495.2–500.6 range, with a corresponding support zone emerging between 480.0 and 485.1. A notable candlestick pattern was observed at 08:45 ET, where the price surged from 477.0 to 483.5, forming a strong bullish engulfing pattern that indicated a potential short-term reversal. However, this was followed by a bearish harami around the 12:45 ET–13:00 ET timeframe, where the price closed within a prior candle, signaling indecision or a possible bearish continuation. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period line briefly during the early morning, indicating a short-lived bullish bias that was quickly negated.

Volatility appears to have expanded during the 24-hour period, particularly in the 08:45 ET–09:15 ET timeframe, where the price fluctuated by over 7 Yen within a short span. This volatility was accompanied by large volume spikes, especially at 08:45 ET (5,343.46 units) and 16:15 ET (2,866.29 units), which suggest increased activity, potentially driven by algorithmic trading or institutional orders. The price also tested the upper Bollinger Band multiple times, most notably at 08:45 ET and 02:45 ET, before retracting, indicating periods of overbought conditions. Conversely, a sharp pullback during the 05:45 ET–06:00 ET window brought the price close to the lower band, hinting at a possible oversold scenario.

Fibonacci retracements applied to the major swing from 477.0 to 483.5 showed that the 61.8% retracement level at approximately 480.9 aligned with a key support zone that was tested multiple times. This level held during the 04:00 ET–04:45 ET window, suggesting it may serve as a short-term floor. The 38.2% retracement level at around 479.8 was also significant and acted as a minor pivot point during the early morning hours. Looking ahead, the 61.8% retracement level at 480.9 could serve as a watch point for potential continuation of the bearish trend if the price fails to hold above it.

A backtest hypothesis is being considered for this market, based on a strategy that relies on RSI-14 as a momentum filter and trigger for buy/sell decisions. According to the strategy described, long positions are initiated when RSI-14 crosses above 70 (overbought) and closed when it drops below 70 again. However, the current dataset does not provide the RSI-14 values, which are essential for executing this backtest. To proceed, it is important to confirm whether “APTJPY” is the correct symbol for the pair on the intended exchange or if an alternative pair such as APTUSDT is more suitable. If APTJPY is accurate, specifying the exchange or providing the RSI-14 data directly will allow the backtest to be completed. Once the correct data is available, the strategy can be implemented, and performance metrics such as win rate, average return, and drawdown can be evaluated over the specified time frame of 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08.