Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) on 2025-10-26

• APTJPY surged from 503.1 to 547.3, forming a strong bullish breakout above a long consolidation phase.
• High volume clustered in the early morning and late afternoon, confirming key price reversals.
• MACD and RSI both showed positive divergence, with RSI reaching overbought levels near 80.
• Price is above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, signaling short-term bullish momentum.
• Bollinger Bands widened as the price broke out, suggesting increased volatility and potential continuation.

APTJPY opened at 506.7 on 2025-10-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at 547.3 the next day, reaching a high of 547.3 and a low of 503.1. The 24-hour total volume was 6,569.87 APT, and turnover amounted to ¥3,483,688.40. Price action showed a strong breakout from a consolidating range, marked by several engulfing patterns and a bullish divergence in the RSI.

The price formation on the 15-minute chart revealed a bullish breakout pattern after a 10-hour consolidation between 505.4 and 506.9. A key Bullish Engulfing candle at 19:00 ET marked the start of the upward move. The 20- and 50-period moving averages were crossed early in the session, with the 50-period line now firmly under the price, reinforcing the bullish bias. The price also remained above the upper Bollinger Band during the breakout, confirming strong momentum.

On the MACD, a positive crossover occurred just before the breakout, followed by a strong positive bar, indicating growing bullish conviction. RSI reached overbought territory, peaking near 80, but remained within range due to the high volume of large price moves. Intraday Fibonacci retracements from the low at 503.1 to the high at 547.3 showed that the price is currently testing the 76.4% level, suggesting potential resistance ahead unless buying pressure continues.

Bollinger Bands saw a significant expansion during the breakout phase, with volatility increasing sharply. This suggests a potential continuation of the trend if the price remains above 539.6, the 76.4% Fibonacci level and a recent intraday pivot. Volume and turnover aligned well with the price moves, with notable surges in trading activity coinciding with key price breaks, particularly during the 04:15–05:45 ET and 15:00–16:00 ET periods.

Looking ahead, APTJPY appears to be in a strong bullish phase, with the 539.6–547.3 range acting as a potential short-term target. However, a close below 534.4 could invalidate the breakout and signal a pullback toward the 524.8–528.3 consolidation zone. Investors should closely monitor volume and the RSI for any divergence that might signal a reversal. As with all strong breakouts, the risk of a sharp retracement remains.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Bullish Engulfing, 1-day hold” strategy was tested on APTJPY over the last 3.5 years, but no instances of the pattern were found in the dataset, resulting in no tradable signals. This absence suggests either that the pattern has been rare or that the price action has not exhibited sufficient bearish follow-through to qualify under the engulfing criteria.

If adjusted to include more flexible engulfing rules—such as allowing partial body overlap or smaller volume confirmation—the strategy could potentially yield actionable signals. For instance, the candle at 19:00 ET on 2025-10-25 could be reclassified as a potential entry if the engulfing criteria are relaxed.

Given the recent strong price move, a backtest of the pattern on a broader set of crypto pairs or a larger time window may be more effective. Alternatively, applying the pattern with a 4-hour or 6-hour holding period could better suit the current APTJPY volatility and momentum characteristics.