Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) on 2025-10-11

• Price dropped 19.5% from a 24-hour high of ¥742.7 to close at ¥587.9, marking a bearish reversal pattern.
• Volume surged during the downward move, confirming the bearish bias with a total notional turnover of ¥118,175.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early on, later entering oversold territory, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands contracted in the pre-dip phase, followed by a sharp expansion, signaling increased volatility.
• A key support level is forming around ¥573.6–585.2, which may hold if the downward trend stabilizes.

APTJPY opened at ¥736.7 (12:00 ET–1), reached a high of ¥742.7, fell to a low of ¥321.9, and closed at ¥587.9 (12:00 ET) after a volatile 24-hour session. The total volume traded was 20,732.97 APT, and notional turnover amounted to ¥118,175. A bearish reversal pattern formed mid-day, followed by a sharp decline and consolidation near key support levels in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action exhibited a strong bearish reversal during the early evening ET hours, as seen in the candle at 194500, which formed a long lower shadow and a sharp bearish body. This was followed by a series of bearish confirmation bars, indicating a breakdown below key psychological levels. Notably, a doji formed at 054500 after the initial bounce, signaling indecision and a potential near-term reversal. A key support cluster was identified between ¥573.6–585.2, with a bearish engulfing pattern forming at 133000 that confirmed the move lower. These levels could serve as a floor in the near term.

Moving Averages & Indicators

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below key support levels during the sell-off, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50- and 100-period moving averages also crossed in a bearish manner, indicating a shift in trend. MACD showed a bearish divergence with price in the early morning, with the histogram shrinking despite the price rebound. RSI entered oversold territory during the final hours, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. However, overbought conditions had been evident earlier in the day, pointing to a lack of sustainable buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands experienced a period of contraction during the early hours of the morning (030000–050000), suggesting a potential breakout. This was followed by a sharp expansion as price plunged toward ¥321.9, indicating heightened volatility. Price spent most of the session below the lower band during the sell-off, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A rebound into the middle band occurred in the final hours, but the upper band remains distant, indicating a continuation of low volatility or a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the key bearish breakdown at 194500, with 273.69 APT traded, confirming the move. The largest single-candle turnover occurred at 213000, with ¥321.9 traded across 13,043.14 APT, marking a sharp price collapse. Volume dried up during the consolidation phase in the final hours, suggesting a lack of conviction in either direction. However, the significant volume during the dip confirms the strength of the bearish move, and the absence of a rebound in turnover during the late-night bounce indicates weak short-term buying interest.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from ¥742.7 to ¥321.9, key levels include 38.2% at ¥596.8 and 61.8% at ¥538.5. Price briefly touched the 38.2% level during the final hours, hinting at a potential bounce. On the daily chart, retracement levels from the previous major move suggest ¥618.2 (38.2%) and ¥568.1 (61.8%) as possible areas of interest. A test of the 61.8% level could confirm the strength of the current trend or indicate exhaustion.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup—specifically, the bearish engulfing and doji patterns, the bearish crossover of moving averages, and the sharp volume surge—this market environment is suitable for a mean-reversion strategy with a trailing stop. A potential entry could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (¥596.8) with a target near ¥618.2 and a stop-loss at ¥573.6. This strategy would capitalize on a short-term rebound while managing risk in case of a further breakdown. The high volatility and RSI oversold reading support this approach, but traders should remain cautious as momentum indicators suggest the bearish trend could persist if the consolidation fails.