Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) on 2025-09-05

• APTJPY traded in a 24-hour range of 624.5–643.5, with a close near the upper end at 640.2.
• Volume surged in the last 5 hours, but turnover failed to confirm a breakout.
• RSI showed overbought conditions in the early morning, followed by bearish divergence.
• A key support level was retested at 635.0, with mixed follow-through.
• Volatility expanded in the final 3 hours, signaling possible trend exhaustion.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 629.0 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 640.2 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 643.5 and a low of 624.5. The 24-hour volume amounted to 10,368.2 units, with a notional turnover of ¥6,543,000. The pair exhibited a volatile but ultimately bullish close, with sharp swings and mixed momentum signals.

Structure & Formations

APTJPY displayed a bearish engulfing pattern at 636.1–634.5 in the early hours of 09:00–09:15 ET and a bullish harami around 05:15–05:30 ET. Key support levels include 635.0, 631.5, and 628.0, while resistance is clustered at 640.5–641.0, 643.5, and 645.0. A strong rebound off the 635.0 level occurred, but bearish pressure returned late in the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into bullish territory after the 07:15 ET rally, indicating short-term strength. The 200-period moving average on the daily chart remains above current price levels, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory during the early morning hours, confirming bullish momentum, but failed to sustain it after 06:00 ET. RSI hit overbought levels (75+) at 05:45–06:15 ET before retreating below 50, signaling potential exhaustion. A bearish divergence emerged between price and RSI after 09:00 ET, suggesting caution for further upward moves.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 09:00 ET, with APTJPY moving outside the upper band before retreating toward the midline. The lower band acted as a temporary floor at 631.5, but price failed to find consistent support there. The contraction before 07:00 ET suggested a consolidation phase followed by a breakout attempt that ultimately fizzled.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 07:15–07:30 ET rally and again during the 09:00–09:45 ET selloff. Turnover surged during the 07:15–07:30 ET period, confirming the upward move, but failed to confirm the bearish turn later in the session. Divergence between volume and price suggests mixed conviction in the current direction.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the 624.5 low to the 643.5 high, key retracement levels are 38.2% at 633.8, 50% at 633.0, and 61.8% at 631.8. Price tested the 38.2% and 50% levels with mixed results, while a potential rebound at 631.8 failed to hold. These levels may serve as dynamic pivots in the coming session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy relies on short-term momentum signals derived from the RSI and MACD, combined with a volume filter to confirm breakouts or breakdowns. Using the 15-minute OHLC data, a potential entry rule could be: enter long when RSI crosses above 55 and MACD turns positive on a bullish signal line crossover, with a stop-loss below the 635.0 level and a target at 641.0–643.0. Similarly, a short position could be triggered on bearish divergence in RSI with a MACD crossover into negative territory. This approach may yield higher win probabilities in high-volatility environments but would require a low-latency execution model for intraday use.

APTJPY appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp upward move, with mixed signals from volume and momentum. A break above 641.0–642.0 could reignite bullish bias, but failure to hold above 635.0 may invite renewed bearish pressure. Investors should monitor the 635.0 and 640.0 levels closely, with a risk caveat that volatility may intensify as the pair tests key technical levels again.