Market Overview: APTos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) - Volatility Expands as Bears Reclaim Control

• APTBTC declined 15.4% over the past 24 hours, closing below key support levels near 3.04e-05.
• Volatility expanded midday before consolidating near 3.015e-05, with bearish volume spikes after 21:30 ET.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions overnight, but price failed to find strong buyers above 3.02e-05.
• MACD diverged bearishly, with histogram shrinking despite a late attempt to rally after 05:00 ET.
• Key Fibonacci retracement levels at 3.03e-05 and 3.04e-05 are now critical for near-term direction.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 3.03e-05 on October 27, 2025 (12:00 ET - 1), and traded between 3.072e-05 and 2.97e-05 over the following 24 hours, closing at 2.994e-05 on October 28 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 9,681.35, while notional turnover totaled $296.12 (approximate). The pair experienced a sharp correction after 21:30 ET, followed by a consolidation phase in the 3.015e-05–3.02e-05 range.

Structure and formations on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakdown from the 3.046e-05 resistance level after a failed rally attempt from 3.02e-05. A large bearish engulfing candle at 21:30 ET confirmed the downward shift. Several doji emerged between 04:00 and 05:30 ET, signaling indecision and potential reversal attempts. The price then tested the 3.02e-05 psychological level twice, failing to break above it. The 20-period moving average fell below the 50-period line, confirming a short-term bearish bias.

MACD (12,26,9) turned negative during the sell-off, with the histogram shrinking after 05:00 ET as buying pressure waned. RSI(14) dipped to 30 by 09:30 ET, indicating oversold conditions, but price failed to generate a meaningful bounce. Instead, volume remained subdued during the rebound, suggesting weak follow-through. Bollinger Bands showed a recent expansion, with price sitting below the lower band for most of the session, a sign of elevated volatility. The 20-period SMA acted as a dynamic resistance, with multiple rejections observed in the 3.025e-05–3.03e-05 range.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 3.072e-05 high to the 2.97e-05 low identified key levels at 3.03e-05 (38.2%), 3.04e-05 (61.8%), and the 3.05e-05 psychological level. Price tested the 61.8% retracement at 3.04e-05 multiple times but failed to hold above it. This suggests that the 3.04e-05 level could become a critical pivot for bears. A retest of the 3.03e-05 (38.2%) level may offer a potential floor for short-term buyers, but without a decisive break above 3.04e-05, further declines could be expected. The 200-period SMA on the daily chart, currently near 3.05e-05, is a critical barrier for long-term trend continuation.

Backtest Hypothesis: The RSI(14) oversold condition observed during the 09:30–10:30 ET window may provide an entry trigger for a 5-day holding period. Given the bearish bias and weak follow-through in volume, the strategy could face challenges if price remains below 3.04e-05. However, confirmation above that level could validate a potential bounce. To execute the backtest, we recommend using a recognized exchange-qualified APT/USD pair such as APTUSDT, as APTBTC is not widely available in historical data repositories. Once we have the correct ticker, we can pull the RSI(14) series and test the rule: “Enter long at close on oversold signal (RSI ≤ 30), hold exactly 5 days, exit at close.” This will allow us to assess the strategy’s performance and risks.