Market Overview for Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) – 2025-11-07

Summary
• Price opened at $2.68e-5 and traded between $2.63e-5 and $3.107e-5 before closing at $2.911e-5.
• A strong bullish reversal formed in the early morning hours, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Total volume reached 30669.59 BTC, with notional turnover reflecting significant volatility.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at $2.68e-5 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.911e-5 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-07. The pair reached a high of $3.107e-5 and a low of $2.63e-5 during the 24-hour window, with a total volume of 30669.59 BTC and a notional turnover reflecting heightened trading interest. The price action displayed a strong upward bias after a mid-night consolidation and several key candlestick patterns suggesting momentum shifts.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bullish reversal pattern between 02:30 and 02:45 ET, marked by a sharp rally from $2.904e-5 to $3.007e-5. This was followed by a consolidation phase before a hammer pattern formed at $2.993e-5. A key support level appears to be around $2.93e-5, with resistance forming in the $3.04–$3.08e-5 range. A potential bearish engulfing pattern emerged between 15:00 and 16:00 ET, signaling a potential short-term pullback.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (20SMA) closely followed the 50SMA, indicating a narrowing of momentum and potential for a breakout. On the daily chart, the 50DMA rose above the 100DMA, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias, with the 200DMA acting as a key long-term reference. Price appears to have closed above the 20SMA, indicating continued bullish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the early morning hours and showed increasing bullish divergence as price rallied from $2.904e-5 to $3.107e-5. The RSI reached overbought territory above 70, suggesting a potential short-term correction. However, price held above key support levels during the consolidation phase, indicating strong buying interest. A bearish crossover in the MACD line at around 16:00 ET may signal an imminent pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke above the upper Bollinger Band during the early morning surge, indicating strong volatility. As the day progressed, the bands constricted slightly, suggesting a potential continuation in the current trend. Price has since retracted to test the lower band, confirming that volatility is still contained, though a break below the lower band would signal bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the 02:30–02:45 ET rally, confirming the breakout from the consolidation phase. Turnover also increased in tandem with the price move, suggesting strong institutional or retail interest. However, a divergence appears to form between price and volume in the afternoon, as price declined while volume remained moderate. This may suggest a temporary lack of follow-through buying.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the $2.993e-5 level aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent upleg, while $3.04e-5 sits at the 50% level, and $3.08e-5 at the 61.8% level. On the daily chart, the key support area is around $2.91e-5, with a 61.8% retracement level forming at $2.85e-5. Price may find temporary resistance at the $3.10e-5 level, which corresponds to a 78.6% Fibonacci extension of the recent correction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration aims to identify and trade on Morning Star and Hammer candlestick patterns. The initial step involves retrieving daily OHLC data for APTBTC to scan for these formations automatically. Morning Star and Hammer patterns typically signal potential reversals, and validating their historical effectiveness could inform a strategy focused on entry and exit signals. Once the data is retrieved, the back-test can assess win/loss ratios and risk-adjusted returns for these setups, potentially refining the strategy for live trading.