Market Overview for Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) – 2025-10-14

• APTB/Bitcoin trades near 3.27e-05 after a 0.8% drop in 24 hours, with bearish momentum and oversold RSI expected.
• Volatility remains elevated with wide Bollinger Bands, and volume peaked near 3.42e-05 before a sharp decline.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed near 3.39e-05, suggesting short-term downside risks.
• Key support seen at 3.25e-05 and resistance at 3.34e-05, with a 20SMA crossing below 50SMA on the 15-min chart.
• MACD indicates weakening bullish momentum, with the zero line as a critical near-term threshold.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 3.317e-05 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and traded between 3.394e-05 (high) and 3.218e-05 (low) over the next 24 hours, closing at 3.272e-05 as of 12:00 ET on October 14. Total volume reached 40,712.23, and notional turnover approached $1,360,000 (assuming Bitcoin at $60,000). The pair experienced sharp intraday swings and signs of bearish exhaustion.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured a large bearish engulfing pattern near 3.39e-05, where price opened near the previous high and closed near the session’s low. This pattern typically signals a short-term reversal, though its effectiveness depends on volume and subsequent price confirmation. A doji appeared at 3.34e-05, suggesting indecision. Key support levels are visible at 3.25e-05, 3.218e-05, and 3.198e-05, with 3.25e-05 appearing most robust. Resistance is clustered around 3.34e-05 and 3.39e-05, with the latter failing to hold during the afternoon sell-off.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the lack of an RSI-14 time series for APTB/Bitcoin due to the unrecognised ticker APTBTC, a synthetic approach is required. One option is to approximate the pair using Aptos-USD and Bitcoin-USD price data to compute relative strength and generate a proxy RSI. A second approach is to shift the benchmark to a different pair if available. Once RSI-14 is computed, an oversold condition (RSI < 30) can be identified, and a 5-day-hold strategy tested from 2022-01-01 to today. This synthetic method could yield insights into bearish exhaustion and potential reversal triggers not visible in volume or candlestick patterns alone.

Moving Averages and MACD

The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA on the 15-min chart, forming a death cross, which aligns with the bearish trend. MACD moved from positive to negative territory, confirming weakening bullish momentum. The histogram has turned negative and expanded, suggesting a sharp bearish acceleration. On the daily chart, the 50SMA appears to be acting as a dynamic resistance, currently at 3.36e-05. A break below the 200SMA at 3.32e-05 would signal deeper bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility remains elevated, with Bollinger Bands widening after a period of contraction. Price closed near the lower band at 3.272e-05, indicating oversold conditions. A pullback into the middle band could signal a temporary reversal, but a sustained break above the 3.34e-05 resistance would be needed to trigger a re-test of the upper band at 3.39e-05. The recent volatility expansion suggests an environment of uncertainty, possibly linked to broader market trends.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked near 3.42e-05 before a sharp decline, coinciding with the rejection at that level. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, showing bearish confirmation. However, a divergence appears in the final 24 hours: while price continued to fall, volume decreased, indicating possible exhaustion. Traders should watch for a volume rebound if price breaks below 3.25e-05, as it could confirm a deeper bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 24-hour high at 3.394e-05 to the low at 3.218e-05 identify 38.2% at 3.326e-05 and 61.8% at 3.271e-05. The closing price of 3.272e-05 is extremely close to the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential pivot zone. A break below this level could see price re-test the 23.6% retracement at 3.346e-05 or even target 3.25e-05 for the next support cluster.

Looking ahead, APTB/Bitcoin could test key support at 3.25e-05, with a potential bounce into the 61.8% Fibonacci level. However, bearish momentum remains strong, and a break below that level could accelerate further downside. Investors should monitor volume for confirmation and watch for a possible rejection from the 61.8% level, which may offer a short-term trading opportunity. As always, risks include unexpected macroeconomic events or Bitcoin weakness that could spill over to altcoins like Aptos.