Market Overview for Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) on 2025-10-13

• Price action on APTBTC was volatile with a bearish bias, closing near session low after testing key resistance.
• Momentum indicators signaled oversold conditions, though price remains within a tight Bollinger Band range.
• Volume surged during key breakdowns, particularly in the late ET hours, hinting at short-term bearish participation.
• A Bearish-Engulfing pattern formed during a critical swing, suggesting a potential short-term reversal into a downtrend.
• Notional turnover was elevated during price declines, aligning with bearish price action but without a clear breakout.

Overview and 24-Hour Price Action

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 3.376e-05 at 12:00 ET − 1 and traded between 3.214e-05 and 3.482e-05 over the 24-hour period. The pair closed at 3.269e-05 at 12:00 ET, showing bearish bias despite several attempts to rally. Total volume reached 57,126.18, and notional turnover stood at approximately 1.9497 BTC. The price action suggests short-term bearish exhaustion, with a key breakdown near 3.30e-05.

Structure and Patterns

The 15-minute candles show a critical Bearish-Engulfing pattern forming at 19:30 ET, signaling a possible short-term top. Price action repeatedly tested the 3.33e-05 to 3.36e-05 range, which acted as a support-turned-resistance after the breakdown. The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart were bearish, with the 20SMA dipping below the 50SMA. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA is trending lower and appears to be in control of the near-term direction.

Trend Indicators

The MACD crossed below zero into negative territory during the late ET hours, confirming a shift in momentum to the bearish side. The RSI dipped into oversold territory during the early ET hours, which could act as a potential support level. However, the failure to close above key resistance levels suggests that bullish momentum remains weak. The histogram showed a bearish divergence as volume surged during price declines.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for much of the session, with a slight contraction observed during the overnight ET hours. A minor expansion occurred after 19:00 ET, coinciding with the Bearish-Engulfing pattern. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 3.31e-05 held briefly, but the 61.8% level at 3.23e-05 appears to be the next critical support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the presence of a Bearish-Engulfing pattern and bearish confirmation from multiple indicators, a backtesting strategy could be constructed. The hypothesis would involve opening a short position upon close of the engulfing candle and holding it for exactly one day (closed at the next day’s close). This approach leverages the bearish momentum seen in the pattern and assumes continued pressure in the short term. If executed over the specified period (1 Jan 2022 – 13 Oct 2025) using the correct ticker symbol, the results could provide insight into the viability of this short-term bearish strategy.