Market Overview for Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) – 2025-10-11

• Price dropped sharply after 19:30 ET, breaking key support levels and reaching a 24-hour low near $0.000029.
• High volatility seen midday, with volume surging above 55,000 BTC during the selloff.
• RSI hit oversold territory, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce but bearish momentum remains strong.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion, confirming heightened volatility and uncertainty.
• Final 15-minute candle closed at $0.00003464, showing modest recovery but unable to reclaim key psychological resistance.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened the 24-hour period at $0.0000405 and reached a high of $0.00004131 before trending lower. The pair closed at $0.00003464 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11, marking a significant 18.4% decline. Total volume for the period was 169,515 BTC, while notional turnover was approximately $5,843,696, indicating a mix of aggressive shorting and increased participation during the selloff.

The price action over the past 24 hours displayed a bearish breakdown after a midday volatility spike. Starting around 19:30 ET, the pair broke below a critical support level near $0.000041, triggering a cascade of shorts. The move saw a sharp drop to as low as $0.000029, forming a large bearish engulfing pattern. A doji emerged near the 24-hour low, signaling potential exhaustion in the downtrend, but given the RSI reading in oversold territory, the probability of a short-term bounce remains limited.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both closed below the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages all remain well above the current price, indicating a broader bearish bias. The MACD line turned negative and maintained a bearish crossover, while the RSI remains in oversold territory at 26, suggesting possible near-term mean reversion. However, the divergence between falling price and slightly rising RSI could be misleading without a strong bullish catalyst.

Bollinger Bands have expanded significantly over the past 24 hours, reflecting heightened volatility and uncertainty. The price has spent much of the last 12 hours trading near or slightly below the lower band, indicating extreme bearish pressure. This expansion may precede a contraction phase where volatility and range-bound behavior could return. Price action within the bands has shown no clear trend beyond the sharp bearish breakdown, suggesting traders should monitor for signs of consolidation or renewed bearish momentum in the next 24 hours.

Volume and turnover data reveal a sharp divergence in the afternoon and early evening, with volume spiking to over 55,000 BTC between 19:30 and 21:15 ET. However, notional turnover declined during this period, indicating that while volume increased, it was not accompanied by significant price movement—suggesting distribution or stop-loss selling. The afternoon spike was followed by a prolonged period of lower volume and turnover, indicating waning participation. This mix of volume and turnover suggests a potential exhaustion phase in the bearish move, but without a clear reversal pattern, caution remains warranted.

Backtest Hypothesis

The sharp drop in APTBTC after 19:30 ET suggests a potential opportunity for a mean-reversion or range-bound trading strategy following a significant breakdown. A backtest strategy could involve entering a long position on a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., a doji or bullish engulfing candle) forming near key support levels, with a stop-loss placed below the recent swing low and a take-profit target aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the RSI in oversold territory and the Bollinger Bands showing a wide expansion, a trailing stop could be used to capture potential short-term rebounds. A more aggressive variant could focus on shorting during retests of broken resistance levels with volume confirmation. This setup could provide a high-probability trade if the market shows signs of consolidation in the next 24 hours.