Market Overview for APTJPY: Volatility Expansion and Bearish Reversal on 2025-10-08

• APTJPY surged to ¥820.0 before consolidating into a defined range, ending at ¥799.5.
• Volatility expanded sharply after ¥800.0, with price dropping 2.5% in the final 3 hours.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near ¥813.8, followed by a bearish reversal and retest of ¥795.6 support.
• Notional turnover surged during the ¥805.6–813.8 range but faded after ¥809.7, hinting at reduced conviction.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before the ¥813.8 high, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown scenario.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at ¥799.6 on October 7 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of ¥820.0 before closing at ¥799.5 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour trading period saw a low of ¥791.7, with total volume of 4,158.88 and notional turnover of ¥3,242,880.54. Price formed a bearish reversal from the ¥813.8 high, retesting key support levels like ¥806.8 and ¥795.6.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern at the ¥805.6–809.7 level before a bearish one at ¥813.8–812.0. A long bearish shadow appeared at ¥815.3–809.7, signaling indecision and a potential reversal. Key support levels to watch include ¥795.6 and ¥789.0, while resistance levels at ¥806.8 and ¥813.8 have shown repeated rejection in the last 24 hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs diverged near the ¥812.0–813.4 range, with price closing below both. This divergence suggests a bearish bias for the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits just above ¥800.0, indicating a potential pivot point for the near-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed bearishly from positive to negative territory after ¥813.8, confirming the bearish shift in momentum. RSI peaked at 74 during the ¥813.8 high and dropped to 48 at the close, showing a moderate retracement but no strong overbought or oversold signal yet.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after ¥800.0, pushing price to the upper band before a sharp drop. Price closed just above the middle band, suggesting a temporary consolidation phase. A contraction in the bands earlier in the session hinted at an upcoming breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the ¥805.6–813.8 range, reaching a high of 1,210.68, but faded significantly after ¥809.7. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, declining in the final 6 hours. A divergence between rising price and falling volume suggests weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the ¥791.7–813.8 swing shows the 61.8% retracement at ¥799.5 aligns with the close, suggesting potential consolidation. A breakdown below ¥795.6 could target the 78.6% level at ¥790.0 for further testing.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be to enter short positions on the close below the 50-period SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop above the 20-period SMA. A target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, with a trailing stop as price moves in favor. The strategy would exit on a bullish crossover of the 50 and 20-period SMAs or upon reaching the target. This approach seeks to capitalize on the bearish divergence seen in the MACD and the weakening volume profile.