Market Overview for APTJPY (Aptos/Yen) — 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• APTJPY rallied to ¥706.3 in early morning ET before retreating to close near ¥682.2 at 12:00 ET.
• High momentum was observed during the pre-dawn hours, with the RSI reaching overbought levels.
• Volume surged during key price swings, confirming the strength of both bullish and bearish moves.
• Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the rally and contraction during consolidation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near ¥700.0, suggesting possible near-term reversal pressure.

APTJPY opened at ¥689.8 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥682.2 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of ¥706.3 and low of ¥677.3. Total volume amounted to 9,703.96 and turnover reached ¥6,602,647.59. The pair exhibited strong bearish pressure in the final hours of the period, following a brief bullish breakout.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data reveals a bearish engulfing pattern near ¥700.0, formed during the 01:15–01:30 ET window. This formation, where a large bearish candle completely covers a prior bullish candle, signals potential short-term reversal. A notable bear trap may have occurred during the early morning rally to ¥706.3, followed by a sharp decline below ¥690.0. Key support levels are now forming around ¥682.0–684.0, while ¥693.0 and ¥699.0 appear as immediate resistance levels on any bounce.

Moving Averages & Momentum

Applying the 20-period and 50-period moving averages to the 15-minute data shows the price closing below both indicators after the midday rally, confirming bearish momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the afternoon, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The RSI peaked at 75–80 during the early hours, suggesting overbought conditions, while the current reading near 35 suggests a balanced market. However, the divergence between price and momentum in the final 6 hours implies caution, as higher highs were not supported by rising momentum.

Volatile Expansion & Volume Insights

Volatility spiked during the 00:45–01:15 ET window as the pair surged to ¥706.3, with Bollinger Bands expanding significantly. Price later retracted into the lower band, signaling a potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. Volume during this rally was robust, confirming the strength of the move. However, as the price retreated, volume remained high, indicating conviction in the bearish reversal. In contrast, the final hours of the period saw moderate volume and a sharp decline in price, suggesting increased bearish positioning.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent ¥689.8–706.3 move shows key levels at 61.8% (~¥699.0), 50% (~¥697.9), and 38.2% (~¥696.5). Price tested these levels before declining sharply, indicating rejection at key psychological thresholds. The 38.2% retracement now appears as a potential support zone on any consolidation or bounce, while the 61.8% and 78.6% levels may act as barriers for further long-term bearish action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions when the price closes below the 20-period moving average and the RSI falls below 50 after a prior overbought condition. This setup was observed in the 03:45–04:00 ET time window and again in the 05:15–05:30 ET period. Stops could be placed above the 50-period moving average, with a target of the nearest Fibonacci support level. This approach would align with the observed bearish momentum and divergence between price and momentum in the final 6 hours. The high volume during the breakdown supports the strategy’s effectiveness in confirming the bearish signal.