Market Overview: APTJPY (Aptos/Yen) on 2025-10-09

• APTJPY opened at 795.6, surged to 811.7, and closed at 752.2 amid a volatile session.
• Momentum weakened in the RSI, with a drop below 50 after a sharp 15-minute rally.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before a breakout to the downside, signaling increased volatility.
• Volume spiked during the 17:30–19:00 ET session, but price action failed to confirm bullish intent.
• Fibonacci retracements highlighted key support near 752.2 and potential resistance around 796.0.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 795.6 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of 811.7, and closed at 752.2 by 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume amounted to 10,279.38 units, while notional turnover was Yen 8,262,012.4. The session featured a sharp 15-minute bearish reversal and several consolidation phases, with key resistance around 800–810 and support near 755–760.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern developed into a bearish engulfing formation around 19:30–20:00 ET, confirming a short-term reversal after an earlier 17-minute bullish move to 811.7. A large bearish candle with a high wick appeared at 18:45 ET, suggesting rejection at higher levels. The price consolidated within a descending channel from 19:00 to 23:30 ET before breaking below the 789.0–790.0 support. A doji formed at 23:45 ET, indicating indecision near critical support levels. The session closed with a bearish trendline break below 760.0, signaling increased bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 EMA and 50 EMA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. The 50 EMA was breached during the 22:00–22:30 ET period, confirming a downward shift. On the daily chart, the 50 SMA was crossed below in the afternoon, with the 100 and 200 SMA acting as a cluster of resistance between 770–780. Price appears to be entering a downtrend as all three longer-term moving averages slope downward, increasing the likelihood of continued bearish pressure.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned negative during the 19:00–20:30 ET session, with the histogram showing a bearish crossover. The RSI dropped from overbought territory (>70) to a reading of ~40 by the session’s end, indicating a return to equilibrium and possible oversold conditions. However, divergence between price and RSI during the 21:00–22:30 ET consolidation suggests caution in interpreting oversold signals. The 1-hour RSI shows a bearish divergence, reinforcing the possibility of further downward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a tightening contraction during the 02:00–04:30 ET period, followed by a sharp breakout to the downside. Price closed near the lower band, suggesting a continuation of the bearish move. The width of the bands expanded significantly after the 18:45 ET bearish candle, confirming increased volatility. The closing price at 752.2 sits just below the 20-period lower band, hinting at potential near-term support or a pullback.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in two key sessions: the 17:30–18:45 ET bullish phase and the 19:00–20:15 ET bearish phase. During the bullish move, turnover exceeded Yen 500,000 in just 15 minutes. However, the bearish wave saw higher volume (Yen 1.2 million) but failed to push price below 750, indicating potential support. A divergence between volume and price emerged after 23:00 ET, as volume dwindled despite continued bearish movement. This suggests weakening conviction and could hint at a near-term reversal or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most recent 15-minute swing from 811.7 to 752.2 aligns with Fibonacci retracement levels, with key support at 755.0 (23.6%), 763.0 (38.2%), and 770.0 (50%). A 61.8% retracement level sits at ~782.0, which may act as a near-term resistance if the price reverses. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels from the recent high (811.7) are at ~790.0 and ~775.0, respectively, suggesting potential areas of interest for both buyers and sellers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described relies on a combination of RSI divergence, volume confirmation, and Bollinger Band breakouts to identify high-probability short-term reversal points. The APTJPY 24-hour session aligns with this framework, particularly during the 19:30–20:30 ET bearish reversal. A hypothetical long or short trade could have been triggered at key RSI divergences and confirmed by volume surges. The bearish engulfing pattern and breakout below the lower Bollinger Band at 18:45 ET could have served as a sell signal with a stop-loss above 790.0 and a take-profit near 755.0. Given the recent bearish momentum and confirmed break below key support, a similar strategy might favor short positions with a target near 745–750 and a stop above 765.0.