Market Overview for APTJPY (Aptos/Yen) – 2025-10-03

• APTJPY surged 8.8% in 24 hours, breaking above key resistance at ¥760.0 and closing near ¥790.5.
• Momentum accelerated in early ET with a bullish engulfing pattern forming between ¥760.0 and ¥774.0.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, indicating heightened volatility post-breakout.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the ¥760.0–¥774.0 rally, confirming strong buyer participation.
• RSI hit overbought territory at 70+, signaling potential short-term consolidation.

APTJPY opened at ¥736.5 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at ¥790.5 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of ¥790.5 and a low of ¥736.4. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 23,236.13, with a notional turnover of ¥17,819,153.22. Price action was defined by a powerful rally beginning at 19:30 ET on the 2nd, with a decisive break above ¥760.0 followed by a sharp rise to ¥790.5 by midday on the 3rd.

Structure & Formations

The chart reveals a strong bullish bias over the past 24 hours. A key support level appears to be forming in the ¥752.0–¥755.0 range, with multiple tests and holds observed during consolidation periods. Resistance has now shifted to the ¥784.1–¥790.5 range, which includes the high of the session. Notable candlestick patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern from ¥760.0 to ¥774.0 and a bearish reversal doji at ¥790.5, signaling possible exhaustion at the top. A small doji at ¥789.3 in the midday window further suggests short-term indecision.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum is strongly aligned with the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, with prices consistently above both. The 50-period line is now approaching the ¥765.0 level, which may become a key reference point in the near term. Daily moving averages (50, 100, and 200) are lagging the recent move but are now turning upward, suggesting a potential shift in the intermediate-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line early in the rally, confirming a bullish momentum shift. However, the histogram has started to contract, suggesting some momentum fatigue in the upper ¥780–¥790.0 range. RSI has climbed into overbought territory at 70+ and may struggle to break the 75–80 threshold without a follow-through move. This suggests a possible pullback or consolidation phase in the near term, especially if volume fails to support further advances.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in response to the recent move, with prices now above the upper band for extended periods. This suggests a high-volatility phase following the breakout from the ¥760.0–¥765.0 resistance. The band width expansion indicates strong participation and sentiment. A retest of the ¥760.0–¥765.0 level could bring renewed volatility as price finds support or encounters resistance again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the rally from ¥760.0 to ¥774.0 and again during the ¥774.0–¥790.5 move. Turnover spiked alongside these price surges, confirming the strength of the buying wave. However, volume has started to wane in the ¥780.0–¥790.0 range, suggesting a potential lack of follow-through. A divergence between price and volume in this range could signal an upcoming reversal or at least a period of consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels derived from the ¥736.4–¥790.5 move indicate key retracement levels at 38.2% (¥768.0), 50% (¥763.2), and 61.8% (¥758.5). The 61.8% level has been tested multiple times and appears to be acting as a temporary support. A breakdown below this level could target the ¥755.0–¥752.0 range for consolidation or a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be designed around the bullish engulfing pattern observed in the ¥760.0–¥774.0 range. A long entry could be triggered on confirmation of the pattern’s close above ¥774.0, with a stop-loss placed just below the pattern’s low at ¥760.0. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of the prior move (¥787.6). The volume spike during the breakout offers additional confirmation, making this setup a strong candidate for a mean-reversion or breakout strategy in highly volatile environments.