Market Overview for APTJPY (Aptos/Yen) – 2025-09-24

• Price opened at ¥642.5, peaked at ¥645.8, and closed slightly lower at ¥644.9 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• Key resistance held near ¥646.5, while support was tested but not decisively broken near ¥631.4.
• Volume surged during a sharp drop from ¥641.6 to ¥631.4 on 3/4 September, but increased again during the final 6 hours.
• RSI and MACD indicated overbought conditions at the high, suggesting a possible pullback.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the drop but began to contract again toward the close, hinting at lower volatility ahead.

APTJPY opened at ¥642.5 on 23 September and surged to a 24-hour high of ¥645.8 before settling at ¥644.9 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the period was 14,084.83 units, with a notional turnover of ¥8,620,504.93 (calculated from OHLCV data). Price action revealed choppy mid-session trading followed by a late rally, with key levels defined by a bearish gap and a bullish reversal pattern in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

A bearish engulfing pattern appeared in the early morning session (3–4 September) as APTJPY fell from ¥641.6 to ¥631.4, indicating strong seller pressure. This was followed by a bullish reversal pattern during the 9–10 September morning hours, where price rebounded from ¥638.7 to ¥641.6 after a period of consolidation. A doji appeared at ¥640.8 on the 2–3 September boundary, signaling indecision. Key support levels at ¥631.4, ¥635.1, and ¥637.7 appear critical, while resistance levels at ¥641.0, ¥643.6, and ¥645.7 are key watchpoints.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained above the 20- and 50-period moving averages during the final 4–6 hours, suggesting short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA dipped below the 20-period MA mid-session, forming a death cross in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100- and 200-period MAs, indicating a broader bearish bias. Price remains below the 200-day MA, which may cap upside unless a strong breakout occurs above ¥646.5.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned positive in the final hours, aligning with the late-day rally. The histogram showed expanding bullish momentum after 9 September, suggesting a possible short-term reversal. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) at the session high near ¥645.8 and dipped below 50 mid-session during a key sell-off, showing the market’s sensitivity to both bullish and bearish triggers. An RSI reading approaching 60 in the final hour hints at a potential pullback or consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the 3–4 September bearish move, with price dropping well below the lower band, indicating high volatility. As the session progressed, bands began to contract again, suggesting reduced volatility and potential consolidation ahead. Price closed near the upper band again during the final hour, reinforcing the idea that the 24-hour high was a key turning point.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the bearish breakdown from ¥641.6 to ¥631.4, with a 1219.3-unit candle showing the most liquidity. A similar spike occurred during the bullish reversal near ¥641.6, suggesting conviction from both bears and bulls. Notional turnover remained stable during consolidation periods but spiked during the 2–3 September and 3–4 September intervals. No significant divergence between price and volume was observed, indicating that price moves were broadly supported by liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the major 15-minute swing from ¥631.4 to ¥645.8, key retracement levels are 61.8% at ¥640.0 and 38.2% at ¥638.7. The final rally found resistance at the 61.8% level, suggesting it could be a pivot point for near-term action. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels from the recent high near ¥646.5 suggest critical support at ¥637.5 (38.2%) and ¥632.0 (61.8%). A break below ¥631.4 could signal deeper bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages the 50-period moving average as a dynamic support/resistance trigger in the 15-minute timeframe. The hypothesis is to enter long positions when price closes above the 50 MA and the RSI is above 50, with a stop-loss set 2% below the entry point. Short positions are initiated when price closes below the 50 MA and RSI is below 50, with a 2% stop above. Given the recent volatility and key levels identified, this strategy may have generated multiple entries and exits during the 23–24 September session, particularly between ¥635.1 and ¥645.7, where the 50 MA crossed into and out of the trendline.