Market Overview for APTJPY on 2025-10-28

• APTJPY posted a bearish close at 529.3 from 535.4, with 518.0 as the session low.
• Momentum weakened as RSI dropped to 46 and MACD turned negative.
• Volatility expanded during the session, but volume remained unevenly distributed.
• A large 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at the session high.
• Key support at 527.0 held briefly, but the price tested 523.6 intraday.

APTJPY opened at 535.4 on October 27 at 12:00 ET and closed at 529.3 at the same time on October 28. The 24-hour period saw prices trade between 518.0 and 541.9, with total volume of 28,504.1 and a notional turnover of approximately 14,988,733.2 JPY. The session was characterized by a sharp decline late in the cycle and uneven volume distribution, with key support levels being tested but not decisively broken.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a clear bearish bias starting from 17:45 ET on October 27, with a 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern forming as the price fell from 541.9 to 538.7. This was followed by a consolidation phase and further bearish continuation, ending with a sharp drop to 523.6 by 15:45 ET on October 28. Key support levels were identified at 527.0 and 523.6, while resistance lingered around 530.3 and 533.6. A doji appeared at 09:00 ET, signaling indecision, and a bullish hammer formed at 08:45 ET, which did not lead to a reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price, reinforcing bearish momentum. On the daily chart, APTJPY closed below the 200-period moving average, indicating a potential longer-term downtrend. The 50-period line remains close to the 100-period, suggesting a temporary flattening of momentum in the medium term.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative and remained below its signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI declined from overbought territory (70) in the early part of the session to 46 by the close, indicating a pullback but not extreme oversold conditions. This suggests the decline may not yet be complete, but a bounce to 533.6 or 535.4 could be expected in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded late in the session, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow 527.5 range to 518.0–535.4. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A period of contraction occurred around 00:00 ET, which was followed by a breakout to the downside.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unevenly distributed, with sharp spikes observed in the 17:45–19:15 ET timeframe (147.11 to 244.15) and again from 22:15–22:45 ET. The largest volume of 57.06 occurred at 01:15 ET, coinciding with a rebound to 528.1. However, this failed to sustain gains. Turnover mirrored volume, with higher turnover during the key bearish moves and lower during consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing (541.9–523.6), the price found support at the 61.8% level (527.0) and tested the 38.2% level (533.6) during the recovery phase. Daily Fibonacci levels also showed 533.6 as a critical resistance area, which failed to hold in this session.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves identifying bearish engulfing patterns at resistance levels and entering short positions at the next session’s open. To refine this, a close rule could be implemented, such as closing the position at the end of that day’s session or using a trailing stop-loss at the 50-period moving average. This aligns with the current bearish momentum, RSI divergence, and Bollinger Band positioning observed in the last 24 hours. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (527.0), while a stop-loss could be placed just above the 533.6 resistance.