Market Overview for APTJPY on 2025-10-23

• APTJPY opened at ¥498.7 and closed near ¥493.1 with a high of ¥504.8 and low of ¥475.0.
• Volatility expanded mid-day with a sharp drop followed by consolidation toward the close.
• Volume spiked during the sharp decline to ¥475 but faded afterward, indicating limited follow-through.
• Price appears to be testing a key support area near ¥485.7, with no clear reversal confirmation yet.
• RSI shows moderate momentum with no strong overbought/oversold signals, suggesting a balanced short-term bias.

APTJPY opened at ¥498.7 on October 22 at 12:00 ET and closed near ¥493.1 at 12:00 ET on October 23. The pair reached a high of ¥504.8 and a low of ¥475.0 during the 24-hour period. The total volume traded was 11,432.55 units, while the notional turnover amounted to ¥5,658,171.07.

Price action began with a relatively contained range before a sharp bearish move from ¥503.2 to ¥475.0 between 20:30 and 21:45 ET. This move was accompanied by a volume spike (¥385.46), followed by a period of consolidation and limited trading activity until the final hours. Price closed slightly above ¥493.1, indicating some short-term resilience, though no clear reversal pattern emerged. The 15-minute chart shows a bearish breakdown from ¥485.7 to ¥475.0, suggesting potential bearish continuation unless buyers emerge to retest this level.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate APTJPY closed near or slightly below the 20-period MA, which has been drifting lower. The 50-period MA also sits below the closing price, reinforcing a bearish bias in the short term. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is a key level to watch; a sustained close below could confirm a broader bearish trend. The 200-day MA appears to be acting as resistance higher up, around ¥495.0–497.0, which may be a target for short-term bounces.

Bollinger Bands reflect a recent expansion in volatility during the sharp decline, with price falling to the lower band before stabilizing. This suggests a potential exhaustion of the downward move, although confirmation via a bullish reversal pattern or a strong rebound would be needed. MACD remained bearish with a negative divergence during the decline, while RSI hovered in neutral territory, showing no extreme overbought or oversold conditions. This implies price may consolidate for now, with potential for a test of ¥485.7 in the next 24 hours if no further bearish catalysts emerge.

Backtest Hypothesis

The inability to fetch APTJPY data highlights the need for a validated data source to ensure accurate signal detection. A viable alternative is to use widely available pairs like BTC-JPY or ETH-JPY as a proof of concept for a backtest using the Bullish/Bearish Engulfing strategy. By applying this strategy—where a buy signal is generated on a confirmed Bullish Engulfing candle and a sell signal on the first Bearish Engulfing candle—backtesting from 2022-01-01 to today would provide insights into its performance under different market conditions. The strategy would also benefit from incorporating risk management rules, such as stop-loss and take-profit levels based on volatility or Fibonacci retracements. Once APTJPY data is validated or an alternative is selected, we can proceed to identify the signals and evaluate the strategy’s robustness.