Market Overview for APTJPY on 2025-10-10

• APTJPY rose from 752.1 to a high of 781.5 before consolidating, with notable bullish momentum late in the session.
• RSI reached overbought territory late, indicating potential near-term reversal risk despite a strong close near the 24-hour high.
• Volatility spiked during the 21:45–01:00 ET window, with over $11,000 in turnover and a peak range of 3.9% within a 5-hour span.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction mid-day followed by a sharp expansion, signaling renewed directional bias.
• Key resistance appears at 772–774 and 780–781.5, while 765 and 755–758 act as potential support levels.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 752.1 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET, reached an intraday high of 781.5, and closed at 756.0 at 12:00 ET the next day. Total volume over 24 hours was 6,692.54 with a turnover of approximately ¥5,176,388. Price action showed a strong rally into early morning hours, followed by a pullback in late morning.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a strong bullish reversal pattern forming around 21:45 ET, as prices bounced off a key support level of 768.0 and surged to a new 24-hour high of 781.5. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed at 23:45–00:00 ET, confirming the reversal. The price then tested the 772–774 resistance band multiple times, with a failed breakout attempt in the early morning. A doji formed near the 781.5 high, signaling potential exhaustion, while a bearish harami pattern emerged after 05:00 ET as buying pressure weakened.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA moved up to 770.0 and crossed above the 50-period MA, confirming a bullish bias. The 50-period MA remained above the 100-period MA, reinforcing the near-term strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA approached the 200-period MA from above, suggesting a possible flattening in the longer-term trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line at 21:30 ET and remained positive through the session, reflecting sustained momentum. RSI climbed to overbought levels (above 70) between 00:00 and 02:00 ET, signaling a potential near-term pullback. A divergence between price and RSI appeared around 05:00–07:00 ET as prices fell while RSI remained elevated, hinting at possible exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction between 15:00 and 19:00 ET as price consolidation occurred. A sharp expansion followed around 21:00–23:30 ET, aligning with the breakout to new highs. By late morning, prices retracted to the lower band of the bands, indicating potential support in the 765–767 range. The bands remained wide, reflecting elevated volatility.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 21:45 ET with over ¥925,000 in turnover, coinciding with the 768–770.5 breakout. A second major spike occurred between 23:45 and 00:15 ET, with over ¥1.5 million in turnover, as the price surged to the high of 781.5. However, a divergence emerged in the morning when volume declined sharply despite price staying near the high, suggesting weakening conviction. Turnover was relatively low during the final 4 hours of the session.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the 23:45 ET swing high (774.1) and 00:15 ET high (781.5) showed price testing the 61.8% retracement at 772.7 and 772.5, with a failed attempt to retest the 78.6% retracement. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels aligned with 765 and 755–758, respectively, as price pulled back in the late morning.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong reversal patterns and momentum divergence seen in the RSI and MACD, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on entries after a bullish engulfing pattern at key support levels, with stops below the low of the engulfing candle. A trailing stop could be activated as RSI peaks above 70, with a target aligned to the 772–774 resistance level and 780–781.5 key highs. This approach could be paired with a volatility filter using Bollinger Bands contractions to avoid false breakouts in low-conviction environments.