Market Overview for APTJPY on 2025-09-27

• APTJPY climbed 2.6% over 24 hours, breaking above 610.0 and testing 617.7 before consolidating near 614.0.
• Momentum remained positive in the morning but weakened after 15:00 ET as buyers retreated near key resistance levels.
• Volatility expanded in the first half of the session before narrowing, with Bollinger bands tightening near 615.0.
• Volume increased sharply during the 19:00–23:00 ET surge but declined in the last 5 hours as price settled around 614.0.
• RSI hit 68 during the peak, suggesting overbought conditions, while no bearish divergence appeared in the volume profile.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 597.0 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET, surged to 617.7, and closed at 614.0 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-27. The 24-hour volume totaled 13,684.37 and the turnover reached ¥8,373,698.99.

The pair demonstrated a strong bullish bias in the first half of the session, particularly between 16:00–19:00 ET when it pushed past 613.6 and approached 617.7 on strong volume. A bearish correction followed, with price retreating to 612.8 and later finding support at 611.5. A second attempt to reclaim 615.0 was successful, closing the session near 614.0. The 24-hour candle formed a long-bodied bullish candle with a moderate upper wick, indicating initial resistance near 616.0.

Structure & Formations

The daily structure revealed a key support level at 611.5 and a resistance at 616.0. Notable patterns included a bullish engulfing candle at 16:00–16:15 ET and a bearish dark cloud cover at 00:30–00:45 ET. A morning doji at 00:00–00:15 ET signaled indecision after the peak. The 15-minute chart also showed a bullish harami at 02:45–03:00 ET, confirming consolidation after a sharp decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period EMA (614.3) and 50-period EMA (613.7) were closely aligned and trending upward, supporting the bullish bias. The daily chart’s 50-period SMA (612.0), 100-period SMA (609.5), and 200-period SMA (608.2) suggested a medium-term upward trend. Price remained above the 50-period SMA, indicating a positive bias for the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained above zero for most of the session, peaking at 5.8 during the 16:00–19:00 ET surge. The signal line crossed above the MACD at 17:45 ET, reinforcing the bullish momentum. RSI reached 68, signaling overbought conditions after the 17:30 ET high, but no bearish divergence appeared in price or volume. A mild pullback to 63.2 at 01:30 ET confirmed a temporary exhaustion in the upside move.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the first half of the session, with the upper band reaching 619.0. By midday, the bands began to contract, with the 15-minute price hovering near the mid-band at 614.0. The 20-period Bollinger bands showed a moderate width, suggesting a phase of consolidation after the morning breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 303.5 at 17:45 ET and 223.75 at 07:30 ET, coinciding with price highs of 614.0 and 616.2, respectively. Notional turnover (¥8,373,698.99) was well-distributed across the session, with no significant divergence between volume and price. The 15-minute candle at 15:15–15:30 ET showed a large turnover of ¥405,768.87 with strong volume (729.24), confirming the bearish turn.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 15-minute retracement from the high of 617.7 to the low of 611.5 identified key levels at 614.4 (38.2%) and 612.6 (61.8%). The price found support at 611.5 and retested 614.0, which aligned closely with the 38.2% Fibonacci level. The daily Fibonacci from the 617.7 high to the 609.5 low suggested critical resistance at 615.1 (38.2%) and 613.2 (61.8%).

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering long on a bullish engulfing candle that closes above the 20-period EMA, with a stop-loss placed at the previous swing low. Given the formation on 16:00–16:15 ET and confirmation above 613.6, this setup may offer a high-probability trade with a target of 616.0 and a stop-loss at 611.5. The 15-minute timeframe appears optimal for such a strategy, given the strong volume and alignment with key Fibonacci and moving average levels.