Market Overview for APTJPY on 2025-09-23

• APTJPY surged above ¥630 amid rising volume and momentum.
• Key resistance at ¥637.1 broken, with a new 24-hour high of ¥646.5 seen.
• Volatility expanded midday before a consolidation phase into the close.
• RSI hit overbought levels late in the session, suggesting potential pullback.
• Volume spiked during the ¥640–646.5 rally but waned afterward, signaling caution.

APTJPY opened at ¥628.0 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥640.6 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair reached an intraday high of ¥646.5 and a low of ¥623.5 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 12,352.88, with a notional turnover of ¥7,844,853.75. The session was marked by a sharp midday rally and a late afternoon consolidation phase.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart showed a powerful bullish reversal pattern emerging from a mid-session pullback between ¥624.6 and ¥627.6. A strong engulfing pattern formed at ¥623.5–625.1 before the price surged higher, breaking above ¥630 with confirmation at ¥632.9. Later, a bearish harami at ¥645.6–642.5 hinted at possible short-term profit-taking. Key support levels include ¥624.6, ¥621.5, and ¥617.0, while resistance is found at ¥643.1, ¥646.5, and ¥650.0.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bullish crossover during the morning rally, reinforcing the strength of the upward move. By the close, the price was trading above both moving averages, suggesting continued momentum. On the daily chart, APTJPY closed above both the 50 and 100-period moving averages, while the 200-period line remains a critical long-term support level.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned positive sharply after 04:00 ET and showed a bullish divergence as the price pulled back midday. The RSI climbed into overbought territory above 70 during the late morning and afternoon rally, peaking at 83.6 before retreating to 68.5 by the close. This overbought condition suggests that a near-term correction may be likely. Momentum appears to have diverged slightly from the price during the consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility was most pronounced between 03:00 and 06:00 ET, with the price widening the bands and hitting the upper band at ¥646.5. The price subsequently moved back into the band’s core by the late afternoon, indicating a potential pause in the upward thrust. During the consolidation phase, price remained between the 1 SD lines, signaling a temporary balance between buyers and sellers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the ¥623.5–646.5 rally, peaking at ¥636.1–637.0, where notional turnover reached ¥1,528,450.5. A volume spike at ¥640.5–643.1 confirmed the strength of the late afternoon move. However, volume declined sharply in the final 15 minutes, despite the price remaining near session highs, suggesting possible exhaustion among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the ¥623.5–646.5 swing, key retracement levels of 23.6% (¥637.5), 38.2% (¥634.2), and 61.8% (¥626.5) became relevant during the consolidation phase. The price found support at the 38.2% level and bounced back toward ¥640.6. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level appears to be a critical target for the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current technical setup, a potential backtesting strategy would involve a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern with a stop-loss placed just below the recent swing low of ¥624.6 and a take-profit at ¥646.5 or the 61.8% Fibonacci extension. A trailing stop could be placed above ¥638.4 to lock in gains. This strategy aligns with the observed volume confirmation and momentum divergence, offering a high-probability setup for the next 48 hours.