Market Overview for APTJPY on 2025-09-21

• APTJPY traded in a volatile 24-hour range between ¥678.8 and ¥696.8, closing lower than its open.
• Price action showed a bearish reversal near ¥695.0 and a potential support zone forming around ¥682.0–684.0.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions earlier in the day, followed by a sell-off confirmed by volume.
• Bollinger Bands tightened before a sharp move downward, suggesting potential continuation of bearish bias.
• Volume spiked during the sharp drop, while turnover remained aligned with price movement, indicating liquidity participation.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at ¥690.4 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at ¥684.0 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, with a high of ¥696.8 and low of ¥678.8 over the 24-hour window. Total traded volume amounted to 10,150.23 units, with a notional turnover of ¥7,321,861. The pair displayed mixed momentum and bearish consolidation toward the end of the period.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed multiple key levels. A notable bearish reversal pattern emerged near ¥695.0 with a bearish engulfing candle, followed by a sharp decline. The area between ¥682.0 and ¥684.0 appears to have acted as a short-term support, with several consolidating candles forming there. A bullish engulfing pattern near ¥684.0 suggested a temporary countertrend bounce but failed to break the prior bearish bias. A doji candle near ¥687.0 highlighted indecision and signaled potential continuation of the downtrend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period MA showed a descending bias, intersecting the 100-period MA from below, which may signal further downside. The 200-period MA, however, remained above the current price, indicating a longer-term balance between bearish momentum and potential support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative for much of the session, with the histogram showing a sharp contraction as the sell-off intensified. The RSI reached overbought conditions near ¥696.0, confirming the strength of the earlier move, but quickly fell into oversold territory below 30, reflecting the rapid reversal. This divergence suggests a strong bearish momentum is in place and may continue in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction phase just before the sharp drop, indicating a period of consolidation and potential breakout. Price broke out to the downside with a clear move below the lower band, suggesting an increase in volatility and confirming the bearish bias. The lower band may now act as a dynamic support zone, with a probable test of the ¥682.0–684.0 area.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline near ¥684.0, with the largest single 15-minute candle contributing ¥2,072,189 in turnover. This aligned with the price action, indicating strong liquidity and participation in the bearish move. However, volume during the subsequent bounce showed a contraction, suggesting a lack of bullish conviction and reinforcing the bearish narrative.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from ¥696.8 to ¥684.0, the 38.2% and 61.8% levels coincided with ¥690.5 and ¥685.8, respectively. The price found support near ¥685.8 and bounced back slightly, but failed to close above the 38.2% level, which suggests the 61.8% retracement is now the next key support level to watch for a potential continuation or reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish bias, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on short entries triggered by a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at ¥685.8, confirmed by bearish divergence on the RSI and a contraction-expansion in Bollinger Bands. Stops could be placed just above the 50-period moving average, while targets may include the ¥682.0–684.0 zone and the 78.6% Fibonacci extension below that. This setup could be evaluated over a 4–6-hour window, with risk management focused on limiting exposure to volatility spikes during high-volume periods.