Market Overview: APTBTC Daily (2025-09-21)

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• Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) declined by -1.88% over the past 24 hours with bearish momentum intensifying after midday ET.
• A key support level at 3.976e-05 was tested and briefly held, suggesting potential short-term stability.
• Volatility peaked after 18:45 ET as the pair dropped 0.09e-05, with large-volume bearish candles confirming weakness.
• RSI (14) dipped into oversold territory (<30) while **MACD** remained negative, indicating exhausted buyers. • A divergence between price and turnover emerged after 05:00 ET, signaling cautious bearish continuation potential.

Market Open and Close

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at 4.011e-05 at 12:00 ET − 1 on 2025-09-20, reached a high of 4.049e-05, and closed at 3.989e-05 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. Total volume across the 24-hour period was 14848.56 units, with notional turnover amounting to 0.5915 BTC.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a bearish breakdown from a small ascending triangle pattern formed between 4.011e-05 and 4.049e-05. A significant engulfing bearish candle emerged at 18:45 ET when price fell from 4.03e-05 to 3.984e-05 with 584.16 volume units, signaling a shift in sentiment. A potential key support at 3.976e-05 was hit and bounced, but a bearish rejection pattern (shooting star) formed at 04:30 ET, indicating sellers regained control.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended downward, with the 20 MA crossing below the 50 MA to form a death cross. This reinforces the bearish bias. RSI (14) reached 24 by the final hours of the 24-hour window, indicating oversold conditions. However, oversold levels have historically failed to reverse this pair, with buyers often absent during rebounds. MACD remains bearish with a negative histogram, showing no sign of bullish reversal momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly between 18:45 ET and 20:00 ET as price dropped to 3.976e-05. This swing pushed the price well below the lower Bollinger Band, a signal typically associated with exhaustion or a potential short-term rebound. However, after 05:00 ET, volatility compressed as the price stabilized around 3.991e-05, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 18:45 ET (584.16 units) and again at 20:00 ET (1426.37 units), coinciding with sharp sell-offs. These volume surges align with bearish price moves and suggest strong institutional selling pressure. Turnover, on the other hand, showed a divergence after 05:00 ET, with price continuing lower while turnover dropped off, indicating potential exhaustion among sellers and a possible near-term bounce into the 3.976e-05–3.989e-05 range.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the high at 4.049e-05 and low at 3.976e-05 show that the 38.2% and 61.8% levels are at 4.016e-05 and 4.002e-05, respectively. The price found initial rejection at 3.976e-05 and then bounced into the 3.991e-05–3.996e-05 range, aligning with the 61.8% level. The 61.8% retracement appears to be a critical psychological and technical area to watch for a potential reversal or pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the strong volume sell-off at 18:45 ET, a backtest could explore a short entry at 3.99e-05 with a stop above 4.011e-05 (the prior day’s high). The initial target would be the 3.976e-05 support level, with a second target at 3.963e-05, which represents a 1.618 extension of the recent bearish swing. This strategy aligns with the MACD divergence and RSI oversold conditions, suggesting a high probability of continuation if key support levels hold.