Market Overview for APTBTC (Aptos/Bitcoin) on 2025-09-22

• Price declined from a 24-hour high of $0.00004031 to a low of $0.00003745 amid uneven volume.
• Oversold RSI suggests potential for near-term rebound, though bearish momentum is dominant.
• Bollinger Bands contract before late expansion, indicating heightened volatility.
• Volume spiked sharply after 06:15 ET, but price failed to confirm strength, signaling divergence.
• Key Fibonacci support near $0.0000378 may be critical to short-term direction.

Aptos/Bitcoin (APTBTC) opened at $0.00004019 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.00003745 by the same time on 2025-09-22. The pair reached a high of $0.00004031 and a low of $0.00003733 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was 21,198.65 APT, while notional turnover amounted to ~$8.22 BTC. The price action shows a bearish bias with a significant breakdown in the latter half of the session.

Structure on the 15-minute chart reveals bearish engulfing and bearish continuation patterns, especially after the breakdown of key support around $0.0000391. Price tested prior resistance levels multiple times, with a failed attempt to reclaim the $0.0000401 area. The 20 and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart have crossed below, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, price is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages, confirming a mid-term bearish bias.

Momentum indicators show a clear divergence. The RSI fell to ~28 by 09:30 ET, entering oversold territory, but failed to trigger a strong rebound. MACD moved into negative territory early in the session and remained bearish through the close. Price action failed to confirm strength during high-volume spikes—most notably at 06:15 ET—suggesting weak conviction. Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction before 03:00 ET, followed by expansion that aligned with the breakdown in price. Price closed near the lower band, emphasizing the bearish bias.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the high of $0.00004031 to the low of $0.00003733 identified key levels. The 38.2% level at $0.00003897 and 61.8% at $0.00003855 were tested, with price bouncing weakly around these areas before continuing lower. These retracement levels could serve as potential entry points for reversal traders, though current momentum does not favor a strong bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy could involve shorting APTBTC when the price breaks below the 61.8% Fibonacci level on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a bearish candlestick formation and a close below the 20-period moving average. The stop-loss could be placed above the nearest resistance, while the take-profit target could align with the 38.2% level or the next support. Given the recent divergence in volume and momentum, the strategy should also include a trailing stop to lock in gains if the bearish trend persists.

Price may test $0.0000374 as a near-term support, but the absence of strong volume confirmation raises risks of a false breakdown. Traders should monitor the 38.2% Fibonacci level and RSI for a potential short-term bounce, while acknowledging the broader bearish bias. Volatility remains elevated, and rapid reversals are possible—positions should be managed with strict risk parameters.