Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT)

Summary
• API3USDT formed a bearish reversal pattern after a 4.8% decline from 0.4285 to 0.3948.
• RSI (5-min) hit oversold levels below 30, while momentum remained weak with no clear divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening past 0.4060.
• On-chain volume surged near 0.3948, indicating potential accumulation or capitulation.
• Price is testing the 0.3948–0.4005 support zone, with Fibonacci levels suggesting possible bounces from 0.3963.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-12-18, API3USDT opened at 0.4270 (from 12:00 ET–1), hit a high of 0.4295, a low of 0.3915, and closed at 0.4009. Total 24-hour volume was approximately 2,500,663.50, with notional turnover of ~$970,739.

Structure & Formations

Price action on API3USDT displayed a clear bearish reversal from the 0.4285 level, breaking down through 0.4211 and into the 0.3915–0.3948 range.

A long lower shadow on the 0.3915–0.3948 candle suggests a possible short-term bottoming process, with the 0.4005–0.4012 level acting as a key near-term resistance. A potential bullish engulfing pattern is forming if price retests the 0.4012–0.4026 range with higher volume.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both trended lower, confirming the short-term bearish bias. Daily data shows the 50DMA at ~0.4045, acting as a resistance and potential trigger for a deeper pullback if not retested. The 200DMA remains above at ~0.4130, indicating a longer-term bearish tilt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative and expanded during the sell-off, reinforcing bearish momentum. RSI (5-min) dipped below 30 at 0.3948, suggesting oversold conditions, but lacks a bearish divergence. This may signal a potential bounce, but confirmation above 0.4026 is needed to validate a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as the price broke down, with the lower band dropping below 0.3960 by 12:00 ET. Price closed just above the lower band at 0.4009, indicating possible exhaustion in the current move. A contraction in band width would signal fading volatility and a potential reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 443,824.73 units near the 0.3948 level, coinciding with the lowest price point of the day. This suggests strong selling pressure or possible accumulation by longs. Notional turnover also rose sharply in the 0.3948–0.3971 range, indicating increased participation as the pair approached key Fibonacci levels.

Fibonacci Retracements

From the 0.3915–0.4285 swing, Fibonacci levels suggest 0.4012 (38.2%) and 0.4063 (50%) as potential bounce levels. A retest of 0.4063–0.4075 could trigger a larger rebound if buying pressure resumes.

Looking ahead, a potential rebound may form if API3USDT retests 0.4012–0.4026 with higher volume. However, failure to hold above 0.3948 could extend the decline toward 0.3900. Investors should remain cautious of further volatility and position sizing.