Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-09-25)

• Price closed lower at 0.7753, down from 0.8231, with a 24-hour low of 0.7634 seen on the 15-minute chart.
• Strong bearish momentum seen via RSI and MACD divergence, with volume surging over 120k as price declined.
• Volatility expanded as price broke below the 20- and 50-period moving averages, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• Key Fibonacci levels at 0.7807 (38.2%) and 0.7653 (61.8%) show potential for near-term consolidation or reversal.
• Dovish candlestick formations, including bearish engulfing and long lower shadows, signal possible continuation of the downtrend.

Opening and Price Action

API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at 0.8231 at 12:00 ET - 1 and closed at 0.7753 at 12:00 ET today, with a high of 0.8240 and a low of 0.7634 over the 24-hour period. Total trading volume reached 381,111.41, while notional turnover stood at approximately $305,300. The price action reflects a sharp bearish reversal, especially following the break below key moving averages and into Fibonacci retracement levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick chart reveals several bearish formations, including a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.8235–0.8173 and a long lower shadow at 0.781–0.7764. These patterns suggest strong selling pressure and a potential continuation of the downward trend. Key support levels are forming at 0.7750–0.7735 and 0.7650–0.7634, both of which are within the 61.8% and 78.6% Fibonacci levels from the key high of 0.8240. Resistance appears to be at 0.7807 (38.2%) and 0.7939, where prior rejections are evident.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages are both below the current price, confirming the bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50- and 100-period moving averages also below the 200-day line, reinforcing a longer-term bearish structure. The price has closed below all three moving averages, which typically indicates a stronger probability of further downside until a reversal occurs.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative and is expanding, indicating growing bearish momentum. The RSI is currently at 34, nearing oversold territory (below 30), but this does not suggest immediate reversal unless bullish divergence forms. The lack of divergence in price and RSI suggests the bearish trend is still intact, with potential for further declines if buyers remain absent.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the last 24 hours, reflecting increased volatility. The price has spent much of the session below the lower band, especially during the late ET hours, reinforcing bearish sentiment. A retest of the mid-band around 0.7807 may offer a near-term bounce, but a sustained close above this level is unlikely without increased buying interest.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked above 50,000 during the early hours of 2025-09-25, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.7986 to 0.7777. Notional turnover confirmed this sell-off, with the largest turnover occurring between 0.8003 and 0.7970. However, volume has since normalized, suggesting that the most intense selling pressure has subsided. Price and volume action remain aligned, indicating a lack of divergence or bear trap potential at this stage.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key Fibonacci retracement levels from the swing high at 0.8240 and swing low at 0.7634 show 0.7807 (38.2%), 0.7702 (50%), and 0.7653 (61.8%) as critical levels. The price is currently hovering near 0.7653, which may act as a short-term floor. A breakdown below this level could trigger a move toward 0.7600, whereas a rejection and bounce from 0.7653 may offer a temporary reprieve for bulls.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy involves a long entry on a bullish engulfing pattern followed by a RSI divergence above 30 and a close above the 50-period moving average. Given the current conditions, a similar strategy may struggle to find validation, as the RSI remains in oversold territory without a clear divergence. A bearish strategy that triggers on a break below 0.7653 with confirmation from a bearish engulfing pattern could, however, align with current price behavior. This aligns well with the observed 15-minute bearish formations and the RSI trend. A stop above 0.7807 would be prudent for any short positions.