Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT) on 2025-11-11

Summary
• API3/USDT declined 2.4% in 24 hours, closing near key support.
• Momentum slowed, RSI near oversold levels, with low volatility.
• Volume spiked during mid-session rally but failed to confirm higher highs.

The API3/USDT pair opened at $0.6702 (12:00 ET–1) and closed at $0.6635 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-11. The 24-hour high reached $0.6882 while the low was $0.6559. Total trading volume amounted to 1,492,433.72 API3, with a notional turnover of $997,896.45. Price action shows a bearish consolidation pattern, with the pair failing to reclaim key psychological and moving average levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed a bearish exhaustion pattern, with price unable to break above the 0.6869 level seen on 23:15 ET. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 00:15–00:45 ET (0.6848 to 0.6677), signaling weak buyer momentum. Key support appears at 0.666–0.667, with a potential rebound likely if buyers step in above this range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed below the price, indicating a bearish bias. On the daily chart, API3/USDT remains below the 50DMA, 100DMA, and 200DMA, suggesting a prolonged bearish trend is still in place. Crossovers are unlikely in the next 24 hours unless a strong reversal candle forms near 0.666–0.667.

MACD & RSI

The RSI ended the session at 29, near oversold levels, suggesting a possible near-term bounce. However, the MACD histogram remained negative, with the line below the signal line, indicating a continued bearish momentum. While a short-term rebound is possible, the broader bearish trend remains intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained narrow for most of the session, with the bands contracting between 0.67 and 0.678. Price action remained within the bands for most of the day but touched the lower band during the 05:15–06:30 ET session. The consolidation may break out or break down depending on volume and order flow in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover showed a noticeable increase during the mid-session rally (18:00–19:30 ET) but failed to confirm a breakout above 0.685. Later in the session (05:00–06:30 ET), turnover surged with a price drop to 0.6663, indicating bearish conviction. The divergence between volume and price suggests bearish exhaustion may be near.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent 0.6882–0.6559 swing saw price finding support at the 61.8% retracement level (0.6673) but failed to hold it. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 0.6896–0.6559 move is at 0.6694, a level that may see renewed interest if buyers push higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “RSI Oversold 5-Day Hold” strategy has shown mixed performance over the past three years, with a total return of 3.07% and a high Sharpe ratio of 0.26. While the symmetric average gain/loss suggests no strong edge, the large drawdown of -59.9% highlights the volatility and risk. The recent RSI near oversold levels may offer a short-term rebound opportunity, but without a clear trend filter or stop-loss, this strategy appears fragile. Combining RSI with Bollinger Band breakouts or Fibonacci retracement targets could potentially improve risk-adjusted returns, particularly in the current bearish market structure.