Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT) on 2025-10-06

• API3/Tether (API3USDT) dropped from a 24-hour high of $0.8145 to a low of $0.7692 amid bearish momentum and increased volatility.
• Price spent much of the session below the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, indicating a weakening trend.
• MACD and RSI showed bearish divergence, with RSI hitting oversold levels near 30, suggesting a potential rebound could be near.
• Volatility spiked during the early hours of 10/06, with a high-volume move from $0.7753 to $0.7807 before consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the price drop, while Fibonacci retracements suggest support at $0.7692–$0.7753 could hold.

API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at $0.7972 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded to a 24-hour high of $0.8145 before falling to a low of $0.7692, closing at $0.8122 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over the period was 1,698,930.91 units, with a notional turnover of $1,284,210.34, reflecting heightened market activity during key price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a bearish reversal pattern during the early trading session on 2025-10-06, as API3USDT broke below a key support zone near $0.785. This was followed by a sharp decline, forming a bearish flag pattern between $0.775 and $0.785. Later in the day, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged between $0.800 and $0.805, signaling a potential recovery. A doji candle appeared near $0.7956, indicating indecision among market participants at that level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (MA) was bearishly sloped, hovering around $0.794–$0.796. The 50-period MA crossed below the 20-period MA, reinforcing a bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at approximately $0.797, while the 200-period MA is near $0.792. Price remains above the 50-period MA but is approaching the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential continuation of consolidation.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the mid-session, with the histogram displaying bearish momentum. The MACD line crossed below the signal line near $0.7935, adding to the bearish sentiment. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30 around $0.772–$0.775, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce. However, the RSI remains below 50, indicating that bullish momentum has not regained control.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the downward leg of the price move, reflecting heightened volatility. The lower band sat near $0.7692–$0.7705, aligning with the price low and forming a key support level. Price retested this level near the end of the session before bouncing back into the upper band range. The mid-band was near $0.790–$0.795, and the price currently resides near the upper edge of the bands, indicating a potential consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the critical decline from $0.7932 to $0.775, with a peak of over 340k units in the candle ending at 19:30 ET. This suggests strong bearish conviction at that point. Notional turnover mirrored this volume increase, with the highest turnover observed at $0.7759–$0.7818. Price and turnover moved in tandem during the bearish phase, indicating confirmation of the downward trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 24-hour move from the high of $0.8145 to the low of $0.7692, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.7937 and the 61.8% level is at $0.7992. Price tested these levels multiple times during the consolidation phase, suggesting they are strong psychological support and resistance areas. On the 15-minute chart, a 61.8% retracement level from a key 15-minute swing near $0.785 to $0.7705 is currently at $0.7765, a level that held during a mid-session retest.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying bearish engulfing and doji patterns forming near key moving averages, followed by a long entry on a retest of the lower Bollinger Band if RSI indicates oversold conditions. This aligns with the observed Fibonacci support and volume confirmation during the 19:30–20:00 ET period. Testing this approach on historical data could offer insights into its efficacy in a range-bound market environment.