Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price declined from 0.8321 to 0.788 over 24 hours, showing bearish momentum with increasing volume.
• Volatility expanded in the early ET session, with Bollinger Band widening observed around 0.8250–0.8300.
• A deep pullback below 0.8000 marked a sharp volume spike, signaling potential support at 0.7835–0.7865.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30, while MACD remained bearish but with fading divergence.
• 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at ~0.7970 appears to have offered temporary resistance before the breakdown.

API3USDT opened at 0.8226 at 12:00 ET–1, hit a high of 0.8321 and a low of 0.7835, and closed at 0.7844 by 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 1,241,897.52, and turnover was $999,363.49. Price action shows a sharp bearish correction driven by a large negative candle on 2025-10-04 at 15:30 ET, where volume spiked to 133,343.47 and price dropped nearly 1.3%.

The 15-minute chart reveals a descending pattern from a mid-session high of 0.8321, with a key support area forming between 0.7835 and 0.7865. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart acted as a dynamic resistance during the decline. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period moving averages are likely in a bearish crossover, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.

Bollinger Bands show a significant widening after the 0.8321 high, with price falling below the lower band for several candles, indicating heightened bearish volatility. RSI has entered oversold territory (below 30), but divergence is not yet clear, suggesting further downward momentum is probable. MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, indicating continued selling pressure.

Key support levels identified include 0.7835–0.7865 (immediate), 0.7900 (50-period MA), and 0.7940 (61.8% Fib retracement). Resistance appears at 0.7980 and 0.8020. A rebound may face immediate resistance at the 0.7980 level, but a sustained move above 0.8040 could indicate a short-term reversal.

Fibonacci retracements of the 0.8321–0.7835 swing suggest 0.7940 (61.8%) and 0.7970 (50%) as critical levels. Price has tested the 61.8% level twice, with the most recent failure to hold it suggesting further downside potential. Volume remains elevated in the lower part of the chart, supporting the bearish narrative.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could focus on a short-biased entry when price breaks below key Fibonacci levels, such as the 61.8% at 0.7940, with stop-loss placed just above the 50% level at 0.7970. Given the current RSI oversold reading and bearish MACD, a trailing stop-loss might be preferable to ride the momentum while managing risk. The recent volume surge and lack of bullish confirmation indicate that this strategy would prioritize early entries post-break with tight risk management.