Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT) – 2025-09-22

• API3/Tether fell sharply, breaching 0.80, with a 47% drop from 24-h high to close at 0.8036.
• Momentum indicators signal oversold conditions, while volume surged during the drop.
• A key support at ~0.805–0.8036 appears strong, with potential for short-term bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with price breaking below the lower Bollinger Band.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.809 and 0.794 suggest potential near-term retests.

24-Hour Snapshot

API3/Tether (API3USDT) opened at 0.9163 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.9198, and closed at 0.8036 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 0.7703. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 2,464,696.69, while notional turnover reached ~$2,030,150. The pair experienced a sharp bearish reversal, with price dropping below key psychological and support levels.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern over the 24-hour period resembles a dark cloud cover and hanging man, indicating strong bearish momentum and potential exhaustion in the buying side. Key support levels appear to be in the 0.8036–0.8050 range, while resistance is forming around 0.8095 and 0.8150. A long lower wick in the final hours of the downtrend suggests short-term stabilization may occur, but buyers appear hesitant.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both bearishly aligned, with the 20 SMA crossing below the 50 SMA in a death cross formation. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA lines remain in a steep downtrend, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price is currently below all three, suggesting a continuation of the decline is likely unless there is a strong reversal above 0.814–0.816.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy could involve a short bias at the break of the 0.8036 support, with a stop above 0.8095 and a target at 0.7800–0.7750. A trailing stop could be placed as price retraces back above 0.8095. This aligns with the recent bearish momentum, moving average alignment, and Fibonacci levels. While the RSI is in oversold territory, it has not shown a strong divergence, suggesting a continuation of the trend is more likely than a reversal.

Momentum & Volatility

The RSI stands at 23, indicating overbought conditions on the short side. The MACD is deeply in the negative territory, with bearish divergence between the histogram and price. Bollinger Bands show a significant widening of the bands, reflecting the heightened volatility of the last 15 hours. Price has remained below the lower band for most of the session, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend is probable.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early part of the drop, particularly between 00:30–00:45 ET, with a massive block of $365,039.15 in turnover. This coincided with a sharp price drop from 0.9071 to 0.8928. However, the volume has since remained high, but not at extreme levels, suggesting the bearish move is being driven by institutional selling rather than panic. The volume-to-price correlation remains strong, offering confirmation of the bearish sentiment.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing (0.9198 high to 0.8705 low) shows key levels at 38.2% (~0.9000) and 61.8% (~0.8830), both of which have been rejected by the market. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the recent high (~0.8350) to low (~0.7703) sits at 0.8095, which is currently acting as a strong psychological resistance. A break below 0.794 (61.8%) could signal a deeper decline toward 0.7800.

Outlook and Risk Caveat

API3/Tether appears to be in a short-term bearish consolidation phase, with potential for further downside toward 0.7800 if the 0.8036–0.8050 support breaks. Investors should watch for a retest of 0.8095 as a key level to determine whether the downtrend will continue or if a bullish rebound is possible. However, given the strong bearish momentum and volume, a continuation of the decline is more probable than a reversal.