Market Overview for API3/Tether (API3USDT) – 2025-09-19

• API3/Tether fell sharply over 24 hours, closing at 0.9176 from an open of 0.9611.
• Key support levels identified near 0.9152 and 0.9000, with 0.938–0.944 forming potential resistance.
• High volatility and diverging volume patterns suggest market indecision and possible short-term reversals.
• RSI and MACD signal bearish momentum, with overbought/oversold extremes observed in late-night price action.
• Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, with price lingering near lower bands, indicating oversold conditions.

API3/Tether (API3USDT) traded within a bearish 24-hour range, opening at 0.9611 and closing at 0.9176, with a high of 0.9680 and low of 0.9108. The total traded volume was 1,922,685.27 API3, and notional turnover amounted to approximately 1,802,547.45 USDT. Price action indicates strong bearish pressure, particularly after 22:00 ET on 2025-09-18, when the pair broke below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours featured a sharp bearish trend, punctuated by a deep decline in the early hours of 2025-09-19, where price gapped down below the 0.9355 support zone. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.9351–0.9249 on the 15-minute chart, signaling strong bearish sentiment. A long lower shadow at 0.9176–0.9205 also emerged in the early morning, suggesting potential buying pressure at lower levels. Key support levels identified include 0.9152, 0.9085, and the psychological 0.9000 level. Resistance remains at 0.938 and 0.944.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-EMA and 50-EMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period MA currently sits at ~0.9280, while the 20-period MA is slightly above 0.9230, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-day MA at ~0.9440 and the 200-day MA at ~0.9590 suggest that any near-term recovery would face immediate resistance from longer-term moving averages, hinting at potential sell pressure upon retests.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish during the early decline, with a significant negative crossover occurring as price dropped below 0.9400. The histogram has remained negative since 20:00 ET on 2025-09-18, suggesting continued bearish momentum. The RSI hit an oversold reading of ~30 in the early morning, offering a potential short-term rebound scenario. However, RSI divergence—where RSI made a higher low while price made a lower low—was observed at 0.9300, signaling a possible weakening in the bearish trend.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, with the middle band currently at ~0.9280. Price has spent most of the 24-hour period near or below the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A contraction in band width was observed during the overnight hours, suggesting a potential period of consolidation before a breakout or breakdown. Price appears poised for a directional move, with the upper band at ~0.9350 and lower band at ~0.9200 acting as key levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the sharp decline below 0.9400 and again during the breakdown below 0.9300, indicating strong conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover also spiked during these periods, confirming the selling pressure. However, divergence occurred between price and turnover after 04:00 ET, when turnover dipped while price continued to fall, suggesting waning momentum. A strong volume bar was observed at 0.9210–0.9176, indicating a potential short-term support level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.9683–0.9108 swing on the 15-minute chart reveals key levels: 0.9465 (38.2%), 0.9340 (50%), and 0.9215 (61.8%). Price found support at the 61.8% level (0.9215) and again at 0.9176, indicating potential areas of interest for rebounds. Daily Fibonacci levels on the broader 0.9720–0.9050 trend show 0.9385 (38.2%), 0.9435 (50%), and 0.9485 (61.8%), all of which appear as possible resistance levels in the short term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves a short-biased trade triggered by a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the 50-period EMA and a RSI below 40. Entry could occur at the open of the next candle after the pattern, with a stop-loss placed above the high of the engulfing candle and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the current swing. This approach aims to capitalize on bearish momentum while managing risk through clear technical levels and volume confirmation.