Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether USDt (AEURUSDT)

• Price drifted down from 1.1043 to 1.1025 amid thin volume.
• RSI showed mild oversold conditions, but momentum remains bearish.
• Volatility expanded significantly after a consolidation phase.
• A large-volume dip to 1.1020 suggests potential support testing.
• Bollinger Band contraction earlier in the session foreshadowed a breakout move.

The AEURUSDT pair opened at 1.1039 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.1045, touched a low of 1.1020, and closed at 1.1025 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 18,315.0, with a turnover of approximately $20,263. The price action indicates a bearish continuation after a consolidation phase, with the key move occurring around 14:15 ET when the pair dropped sharply to 1.1020.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a clear bearish breakdown after a short-term consolidation phase. A large-volume candle at 14:15 ET marked a significant decline from 1.1034 to 1.1020, signaling potential support. This candle had a long lower wick and a wide range, indicating rejection of higher prices. Earlier in the day, a bullish engulfing pattern had failed to hold, reinforcing the bearish bias. Doji candles appeared in the morning, suggesting indecision before the bearish breakout.

Support and Resistance Levels

Key support levels are now at 1.1020 and potentially 1.1015, while the nearest resistance is at 1.1035. A retest of 1.1034 could provide an opportunity to assess strength, but a breakout above 1.1043 may require stronger bullish momentum. The 1.1043 level remains a critical psychological and technical resistance point.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed to the downside, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price remains below both lines, with no sign of a reversal. For daily charts, the 50-period moving average is above the 100 and 200-period lines, indicating a medium-term bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the late morning and remained in bearish territory, with a bearish crossover of the signal line. The histogram showed a sharp decline in bullish momentum. RSI hit a 24-hour low near 30, suggesting oversold conditions, but without a corresponding bounce, it may not be enough to reverse the trend. A rebound from 30 could suggest a short-term rebound, but a close above 1.1035 would be needed for confirmation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands were in a narrow consolidation phase early in the day, indicating low volatility. A sharp break below the lower band at 14:15 ET confirmed a breakout to the downside, with the pair now trading below the 1.1025 level. A retest of the lower band could offer a short-term opportunity, but a sustained move above the 1.1035 level would be required to trigger a bullish scenario.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply during the breakdown at 14:15 ET, with a single candle accounting for 3,314.9 units of volume. This confirms the bearish move was well-supported by liquidity. Turnover followed a similar pattern, with the dip at 1.1020 occurring amid the highest volume bar. Price and turnover appear aligned, with no signs of divergence. However, the lack of follow-through buying after the rebound to 1.1034 raises questions about the strength of the 1.1020 support level.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute move from 1.1045 to 1.1020, the 38.2% retrace is at 1.1033 and the 61.8% at 1.1030. The current price at 1.1025 is below both levels, suggesting a potential test of the 1.1020 level. A move above 1.1030 would indicate a potential reversal, but until then, the bearish bias remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy suggests entering a short position when price breaks below the 15-minute 20-period moving average with confirmation from the MACD turning negative and RSI below 50. The stop-loss would be placed just above the most recent swing high, while the take-profit would target the 38.2% Fibonacci level. This hypothesis aligns with today’s observed breakdown and is supported by the volume and momentum indicators. A successful execution would imply a high-probability short trade with defined risk levels.