Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether USDt (AEURUSDT)

• Price drifted downward over the 24 hours, closing below the opening level with modest volatility.
• Momentum indicators suggest easing downward pressure but lack clear reversal signals.
• Volume remained mixed with several low-volume consolidation periods.
• Key support tested and broken at 1.1101, with potential for further downside in the near term.
• Overbought conditions absent; RSI and MACD remain within neutral to weak ranges.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether USDt (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.1192 at 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-04 and closed at 1.1053 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-05, with a high of 1.1195 and a low of 1.1034. The 24-hour volume totaled 348,790.0 units, with a notional turnover of $381,768.10. The pair remained in a bearish bias throughout the reporting period, with a strong breakdown below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action formed a descending pattern with several bearish engulfing candles as well as a few doji at key inflection points, signaling indecision and exhaustion in the short term. The breakdown below 1.1101, which acted as prior support, confirmed a shift in sentiment. A potential target for the next support level appears near the 1.1034 level, where volume spiked and a large red candle closed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price remained below the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has crossed below the 100DMA and 200DMA, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend into the near future. These moving averages may offer resistance should the market attempt a recovery in the next 24 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line, and the histogram displayed consistent bearish momentum, suggesting that the downward move may persist. RSI remained in neutral to weak territory, dipping below 50 and approaching 40 in the later hours, indicating a moderate oversold condition. While not extreme, this could provide a floor for a temporary bounce, though further confirmation would be needed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened as the price moved lower, reflecting increased volatility during the breakdown. Price closed near the lower band, which suggests that it is trading in a weaker phase. A rebound toward the middle band (currently around 1.1088) may offer a limited short-term recovery path, but a retest of the lower band is likely if bearish momentum continues.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly during the breakdown period, especially around 04:00 ET–05:00 ET, with the largest single candle (around 04:00 ET) showing both a 34,879.0 volume and a large price move from 1.1112 to 1.1079. This supports the legitimacy of the breakdown. However, volume has since tapered off, suggesting that the market may be entering a consolidation phase. Price and turnover have shown some convergence during key down moves, adding credibility to the bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.1195 to 1.1034 shows key levels at 1.1138 (38.2%), 1.1109 (50%), and 1.1080 (61.8%). The current close at 1.1053 is below the 61.8% level, suggesting that the move is still unfolding. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the previous bullish phase is at 1.1138, which may act as resistance if a short-term bounce occurs.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a short position when the price breaks below the 1.1101 support level, with a stop-loss placed above the 1.1138 Fibonacci level and a take-profit target at the 1.1034 level. This aligns with the recent breakdown observed and the bearish signal from the MACD and RSI. The increased volume during the breakdown adds confidence to the signal. A successful trade would require the price to remain below the 1.1101 level and continue toward 1.1034, with a moderate risk of a short-term bounce toward 1.1080. This strategy could serve as a low-risk entry for short-term bearish traders.