Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) – October 9, 2025

• Price opened at 1.0824 and closed near 1.0805 amid consolidation and pullback
• Volatility surged around 20:15–21:15 ET as price tested prior highs and retested key support
• Volume spiked during breakouts but faded toward the end of the session, signaling mixed conviction
• RSI and MACD showed mixed momentum, with RSI hinting at oversold conditions near close
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the session, reflecting heightened market uncertainty

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0824 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 1.0805 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.085 and a low of 1.0805. Total 24-hour volume was 9,712.4 units and notional turnover was approximately 10,516.93 (assuming USD-based value). The price experienced moderate volatility, with key intraday swings observed between 1.0805 and 1.085.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several key turning points, with a bearish breakout forming after a bullish consolidation phase. A significant 1.085 high was followed by a pullback to 1.0805, forming a potential bearish flag pattern. A long-legged doji at 05:00 ET–1 and a bearish engulfing pattern at 09:15 ET suggest indecision and bearish sentiment. The 1.0822–1.0825 range appears to be a critical support cluster, with a prior high at 1.0834 acting as a potential short-term resistance.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA both dipped below the 1.0830 level, confirming a bearish tilt in the short term. The 50EMA and 100EMA on the daily chart continue to converge around 1.0835, while the 200DMA remains above the 1.0840 level, suggesting a potential bearish crossover is forming. Price is currently below all three daily moving averages, indicating a short-term downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish after 09:00 ET, with the line dipping below the signal line and forming a negative histogram. The RSI dropped from 58 to 32 over the final four hours of the session, suggesting an oversold condition. However, divergence is noted between RSI and price during the 02:00–04:00 ET period, as RSI rose while price continued to fall, signaling potential bearish exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 20:00 ET, with price breaking out of a narrow band and reaching the upper band at 1.085. By 09:15 ET–1, it had retested the lower band at 1.0805. The 15-minute bands remained compressed until the breakout, while daily bands continue to widen, reflecting increased uncertainty in the market. Price currently sits just below the 20-period lower band, a bearish sign for continuation.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during key breakout periods, with a peak of 1,206.3 units at 20:15 ET, confirming the move higher. However, the final hour of the session saw volume decline sharply, with only 174.6 units traded, suggesting weak follow-through. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a high of 1,327.85 at 20:15 ET and a low of 174.6 at the close. A divergence between price and turnover appears during the final 15-minute candle, indicating a weakening bearish case.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart show a 61.8% retracement at 1.0815, which was tested during the final hour. A 38.2% retracement at 1.0830 held briefly after the 20:15 ET breakout before price resumed its decline. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent swing sits at 1.0827 and appears to act as a critical support zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions at the 1.0830 Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level after a bearish engulfing candle and exiting at the 1.0815 61.8% level, with a stop-loss placed just above the 1.0834 prior high. This setup would aim to capture a short-term reversal move during high volatility periods, aligning with the observed bearish momentum and MACD divergence. Given the low volume and oversold RSI at the close, a similar strategy with tighter stop-loss and smaller position sizing might be more appropriate for the next 24 hours, particularly if the 1.0822–1.0825 cluster holds as support.