Market Overview: Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) – October 3, 2025

• AEURUSDT opened at 1.0822 and closed at 1.084 after a 24-hour consolidation with a high of 1.0859 and low of 1.0822.
• Price bounced off the 1.0822 support twice before forming a bullish reversal pattern around 1.0825–1.0834.
• Volatility expanded during the session with peak trading volume at 1.0859 and a notable divergence between volume and price.
• Momentum indicators suggest waning bearish pressure, while RSI approaches neutral territory.
• The 1.0822 level remains key support; if breached, could trigger further downside.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0822 on October 2 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.084 on October 3 at the same hour. Over the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 1.0859 and a low of 1.0822. Total trading volume for the 15-minute candles amounted to 19,411.7 units, with an estimated notional turnover of approximately $21,026 (at $1.084 as reference).

Price action revealed a strong bearish push early in the session, with a sharp drop from 1.0829 to 1.0804 before rebounding with a strong bullish reversal at 1.0825. The 1.0822 support level held twice, forming a potential base for a consolidation phase. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 1.0825–1.0834, which may signal a short-term reversal. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart were in close proximity, indicating a sideways bias.

The 15-minute MACD showed a bearish divergence in the early hours of the session but has since turned bullish. RSI moved into overbought territory earlier but has since pulled back toward the 50 level, suggesting balanced momentum. Bollinger Bands expanded during the bullish push near 1.0859, reflecting increased volatility. Price spent significant time near the upper band during the late-night hours, indicating strength.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 1.0804 low to the 1.0859 high suggest key psychological levels at 1.0835 (38.2%) and 1.0826 (61.8%). The price has tested both levels, with a potential bounce at the 61.8% level suggesting buyers may have stepped in. Volume analysis revealed a significant spike near 1.0859, yet price failed to hold above it, indicating potential indecision among traders.

The pair appears to be in a tight consolidation phase, with a potential breakout or breakdown imminent. Traders may watch the 1.0822 level closely, as a break below could signal renewed bearish sentiment, while a close above 1.0859 could confirm a bullish breakout. However, as with all crypto markets, high volatility remains a risk.

Backtest Hypothesis
The strategy described involves a mean-reversion approach based on 15-minute Bollinger Bands and RSI. Specifically, it seeks to identify oversold RSI conditions (below 30) and price near the lower Bollinger Band as potential buy signals, while overbought RSI (above 70) and price near the upper band may signal sell or short opportunities. Given the recent behavior of AEURUSDT, where price touched the lower Bollinger Band and RSI dipped below 30 around 1.0822–1.0825, this strategy would have generated a buy signal. However, the price failed to break above the 1.0859 level despite strong volume, suggesting that a more aggressive breakout-based strategy may have been more effective in this context. A hybrid model combining both mean-reversion and breakout signals could offer better risk-adjusted returns for future trading.