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• Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether opened at 1.0436 and fluctuated within a narrow range, forming consolidation patterns before breaking lower.
• A sharp decline occurred after 22:00 ET with a 0.43% drop to 1.0303, indicating bearish pressure.
• Volatility spiked during the overnight session with increased volume but failed to sustain gains.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum, with RSI dipping below 30, suggesting oversold conditions.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed before the break, signaling a potential breakout, but price failed to follow through.
Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0436 on October 20 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.0471, and closed at 1.0349 as of 12:00 ET October 21. The pair traded within a range of 1.0303 to 1.0471 over 24 hours. Total volume amounted to 9,775.9 units, while notional turnover reached $10,172.66. Price action suggests a bearish bias amid high volatility in the overnight session.
On the 15-minute chart, AEURUSDT displayed several consolidation patterns, including a bullish engulfing at 21:15 ET, which failed to hold. Later, a bearish dark cloud cover at 22:30 ET confirmed a reversal lower. A long-legged doji at 02:15 ET and a morning star at 04:30 ET indicated indecision and potential exhaustion of bullish momentum. These patterns, combined with the overnight sell-off, may hint at a continuation of bearish pressure unless a strong bullish reversal emerges.
MACD turned negative around 01:00 ET and remained below zero, signaling bearish momentum. RSI dropped below 30 from 04:00 ET onward, reinforcing the oversold condition, though a bounce above 40 may indicate a short-term recovery. Bollinger Bands tightened before the 22:00 ET break, suggesting a contraction in volatility, followed by a sharp expansion. Price closed near the lower band, pointing to potential for further support tests. Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed the 20-period line dipping below the 50-period line, suggesting a bearish crossover.
Fibonacci retracement levels on the overnight drop showed AEURUSDT currently resting near the 61.8% level of the 1.0471–1.0303 range. Key support is likely at 1.0303, while resistance sits at 1.0349. If price rebounds from this level, the 50-period SMA at ~1.037 may act as a near-term ceiling. A break below 1.0303 could trigger a test of the 1.028–1.029 cluster, which has shown prior support. Notional turnover spiked during the 05:00–06:00 ET window, but volume was low during the rally from 07:00–09:00, suggesting divergence in conviction.
Backtest Hypothesis
The attempted backtest for AEURUSDT could not proceed due to an unrecognized ticker symbol in the backtest engine. This highlights the importance of using verified and recognized symbols for technical pattern-based strategies. For example, if the intended pair is EURUSDT on Binance, the Bullish Engulfing and Dark Cloud Cover patterns from 2022–2025 could be evaluated for 24-hour holding-period performance. Once the correct symbol is confirmed, a backtest could help assess the predictive power of these candlestick signals, especially in conjunction with RSI and MACD for filtering false breakouts and improving risk-adjusted returns.
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