Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT)

Summary
• Price action showed a volatile 24-hour range with sharp pullbacks and rebounds.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions in the latter half of the period.
• Key support and resistance levels were tested multiple times, indicating indecision.
• Volume spiked during sharp moves, confirming price action in most cases.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.1632 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.1900, touched a low of 1.1578, and closed at 1.1825 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The 24-hour volume totaled 16,662.0 and turnover amounted to approximately $19,393.6 based on average prices.

Price action over the 24-hour period was marked by a broad trading range, with sharp upward and downward corrections occurring throughout the session. Notable candlestick patterns included a bearish engulfing pattern around 20:00 UTC and a bullish harami near 11:00 UTC. These patterns suggested short-term indecision and potential trend reversals. The price found support around 1.1601–1.1603 and tested resistance at 1.1671–1.1672 multiple times, with the final 24-hour close at 1.1825 breaking through prior resistance levels.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a narrowing gap during the latter part of the session, suggesting momentum may be favoring the bulls. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages remain in a slight bullish alignment, though the price has yet to close above the 200-period MA, which could signal continued consolidation or a potential breakout.

The MACD crossed into positive territory in the final hours of the session, confirming bullish momentum, while RSI reached overbought levels (above 70), indicating the price may be due for a pullback. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the sharp move to 1.1900, with price closing near the upper band, signaling a temporary overextension. However, the lower band held firm around 1.1578–1.1601, which may continue to offer support in the near term.

Volume spiked significantly during the late hours of the session, particularly around 17:00–18:00 UTC and again during the final 24-hour close, confirming the sharp price moves. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, aligning with price action. A divergence was noted between price and volume during the early morning hours, suggesting some short-term uncertainty among traders. However, the overall volume profile remained constructive, especially during the final rally to 1.1900.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the key 15-minute swing from 1.1578 to 1.1900 showed the 61.8% level at approximately 1.1757, which the price tested during the consolidation phase. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of a prior move appears to align with the current close, suggesting a potential continuation of the bullish bias if the price can hold above this level in the next 24 hours. The 38.2% retracement at 1.1700 also acted as a short-term support during the day.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy evaluated a RSI-based approach using a 14-day RSI with an overbought threshold of 70. The results indicated modest returns from January 2022 to November 2025, with limited volatility and a weak Sharpe ratio. The use of a fixed 5-day exit rule helped in managing risk, but the lack of additional filters such as volume or volatility-based entry signals may have limited performance. In the context of today’s price action, where RSI frequently hit overbought levels, this strategy might have generated signals for shorting after peaks around 1.1900. However, incorporating tighter entry rules—such as RSI > 75 or volume confirmation—could improve risk-adjusted returns, especially in a market as range-bound and volatile as AEURUSDT.