Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT)

• Price action shows a bearish bias, with a 0.9% drop over 24 hours
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, hinting at potential short-term support
• Volatility spikes in late trading, signaling renewed investor interest
• Low volume during early hours, with sharp volume increase during Asian session
• Bollinger Band contraction suggests consolidation before a potential breakout

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0956 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.0788 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 1.0967 and a low of 1.0726. Total volume traded over 24 hours was 98,399.3 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $107,736 (assuming $1 = 1 unit of USDT).

Structure & Formations

Over the past 24 hours, AEURUSDT has formed a bearish consolidation pattern with key support levels emerging at 1.0786–1.0800 and 1.0830–1.0846, both of which have been retested multiple times. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 09:45–10:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum. A doji appeared at 11:45 ET, suggesting indecision among traders near 1.0792, but this was followed by further bearish movement. Resistance at 1.0851–1.0864 failed to hold, reinforcing the downward bias.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is below the 50-period MA, indicating bearish momentum, with both lines trending downward. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is below the 100-period and 200-period MAs, forming a bearish “death cross” formation. Price is trading below all key moving averages, suggesting ongoing bearish pressure and a continuation of the current downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has been negative for the majority of the session, with a bearish crossover observed around 09:45 ET. The RSI has entered oversold territory below 30 for much of the session, indicating potential near-term support. However, this should be treated with caution as extended oversold readings can persist during strong downtrends. The divergence between the bearish price action and the RSI suggests a potential bounce or pullback could be in the cards, but only as long as volume supports it.

Bollinger Bands

Price has remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with volatility expanding during the Asian session as price dropped to 1.0726. The 20-period band width increased, indicating rising volatility. Price has since been consolidating near the lower band at 1.0786–1.0800, suggesting a potential reversal or consolidation phase. If price breaks below this support, it could signal a deeper bearish move toward 1.0700–1.0720.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was unusually low in the first few hours of the session, with several zero-volume 15-minute candles. However, a sharp increase in trading activity occurred starting around 09:45 ET, coinciding with the bearish engulfing candle and a significant price drop. Notional turnover spiked during the Asian session, confirming the strength of the bearish move. No clear divergence between price and volume was observed, indicating that the bearish pressure is being supported by strong participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing from 1.0967 to 1.0726, key retracement levels include 38.2% at 1.0837 and 61.8% at 1.0882. Price has tested the 38.2% level multiple times without breaking it, suggesting it is acting as a short-term support. The 61.8% level is a potential target for a bearish continuation or a potential pivot for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation with a stop-loss placed just above the high of the pattern. A tight take-profit could be set near the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a target for further shorting if the price continues below 1.0800. This strategy aligns with the bearish engulfing formation observed on 09:45 ET and the subsequent price action. The RSI’s oversold condition could also be used as a timing filter to avoid false signals during the consolidation phase.