Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary (2025-09-20)

• AEUR/USDT traded in a narrow range early before a sharp breakout to 1.1094 by 16:00 ET.
• A 1.081 low and 1.1094 high marked a 1.87% 24-hour range, with a close at 1.0980.
• Volatility expanded significantly in the final hours, with turnover surging on large-volume candles.
• Overbought RSI levels suggest potential near-term consolidation after the breakout.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near the 1.0943 support level, indicating possible follow-through.

Opening and Range Summary

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0894 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, touched a high of 1.1094, a low of 1.0810, and closed at 1.0980 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume reached 1,584,171.5 with a notional turnover of $1,738,939.45 (based on average price of ~$1.0965). The pair exhibited a moderate to high volume profile in the final hours of the period.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern around the 1.0943 level in the early morning hours of 2025-09-20. This pattern followed a bearish phase and may signal a short-term reversal. A doji candle emerged near the 1.0895 support level at 05:00 ET, indicating indecision before a rally. A strong upward thrust occurred from 15:45 ET onwards, where price broke out of a defined consolidation range, forming a large bullish candle at 16:00 ET with a 1.1094 high. This breakout may suggest a shift in near-term sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were closely aligned below the price during the early morning hours before diverging as the rally accelerated. The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA shortly before the breakout, signaling a potential bullish signal. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period MAs remained in a neutral configuration, with the price closing above the 50-day MA, suggesting slight bullish momentum on a broader scale.

MACD & RSI

The RSI reached an overbought level of 75 during the final hour of the 24-hour window, suggesting potential near-term pullback. The MACD histogram expanded significantly during the breakout phase, indicating growing momentum. However, the RSI divergence with price during the 04:00–05:00 ET period suggested weakening bearish momentum ahead of the reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly in the final 2 hours of the period, with price moving above the upper Bollinger Band at 16:00 ET. Prior to this, price had remained within a tight range for most of the day, indicating a period of consolidation. The expansion of the bands correlates with increased volume and confirms a potential breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 122,405.2 at 16:00 ET, coinciding with the highest price of 1.1094. This large-volume candle confirmed the breakout rather than indicating a potential reversal. Earlier in the day, a relatively low-volume candle at 04:00 ET showed no divergence from the RSI, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend. Overall, volume and turnover aligned with the price action, especially during the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 1.0810 to 1.1094, key levels include 38.2% at ~1.0922 and 61.8% at ~1.0982. Price closed near the 61.8% retracement level, indicating strong buying pressure. On the daily chart, the retracement levels align with the 2025-09-19 consolidation range, with the 61.8% level likely to serve as a near-term resistance zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

If we consider a backtesting strategy that triggers long entries on a bullish engulfing pattern occurring above a 50-period MA on a 15-minute chart and exits at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level with a stop loss below the engulfing pattern’s low, the data suggests the potential for a high-probability trade on 2025-09-20. The setup was confirmed by increasing volume and momentum expansion, supporting the strategy’s assumptions. This approach could be backtested for consistency in similar conditions over the past month.