Market Overview: Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) – 24-Hour Analysis

• Price dipped to 1.1408 before recovering toward 1.1777.
• Heavy volume during the 20:30–20:45 ET selloff.
• RSI hit oversold levels but failed to trigger a strong rebound.
• Consolidation above 1.1645 suggests short-term support.
• Volatility expanded during the selloff but has since compressed.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.1755 on November 11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 1.1631 on November 12 at the same time. The pair reached a high of 1.1849 and a low of 1.1408 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was 30214.7, with a notional turnover of $35,698. The price appears to be in a consolidation phase after a sharp correction.

The 15-minute chart reveals a key support level forming around 1.1645–1.1660, where the price repeatedly tested after the selloff. This area has shown buying interest, particularly during the 00:00–02:00 ET period. The candlestick pattern during the early hours of November 12 suggests a bullish pennant, indicating a potential reversal or continuation of the uptrend, depending on whether the pattern breaks above the resistance at 1.1717–1.173.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart show a slight divergence. The 50-period MA is above the 20-period MA, indicating a potential bearish crossover in the near term. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs remain in a mixed configuration, with the 50-period MA crossing below the 100-period MA, hinting at a possible bearish bias in the broader trend. However, the price remains above the 200-period MA, suggesting the long-term trend is not yet confirmed bearish.

MACD on the 15-minute chart crossed into negative territory after the selloff, signaling weakening momentum. The RSI reached an oversold level of 27.3 but failed to generate a strong bullish bounce, which may indicate weak conviction among buyers. Bollinger Bands show a sharp contraction during the selloff before expanding again, pointing to a potential increase in volatility. The price has been hovering around the lower band in recent hours, suggesting continued bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high at 1.1849 to the low at 1.1408 indicate a possible bounce near the 61.8% level at around 1.166–1.167, which may act as a critical support/resistance zone.

A potential bounce from the 1.1645–1.1660 support zone may offer short-term traders a chance to re-enter a long position. However, a break below this level could accelerate the downward move toward the next target at 1.1600. Conversely, a move above the 1.1717 resistance could trigger a rebound to test the 1.1755–1.1777 range. Traders should remain cautious for volatility and monitor volume for signs of strength or weakness.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtesting strategy described aims to generate buy signals when RSI falls below 30 and sell when RSI rises above 70. Given the current RSI reading near oversold levels, the strategy would currently be signaling a buy on AEURUSDT. However, considering the weak bounce after the recent oversold condition, the strategy may need additional filters—such as volume confirmation or a price rebound above key moving averages—to improve its reliability. A full back-test using the AEURUSDT ticker (on Binance or another exchange) would help quantify the strategy's effectiveness, especially in a market that has shown mixed momentum and price consolidation.