Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT): 24-Hour Analysis

• Price action shows a bearish bias on AEURUSDT with a 24-hour low of 1.1002.
• Momentum indicators signal overbought conditions earlier in the day, followed by bearish divergence.
• Volatility expanded during the overnight session, with strong volume spikes.
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at a potential breakout.
• Volume and price aligned in a bearish pattern after 06:00 ET, confirming a downward shift.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.1034 on 2025-09-15 12:00 ET and traded as high as 1.1045 before falling to 1.1002, closing at 1.1007 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-16. Total traded volume was 26,259.4, and notional turnover reached 28,986.02 during the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern reveals a bearish trend, with a notable bearish engulfing pattern forming between 06:30 and 06:45 ET, signaling a key reversal from bullish to bearish momentum. Several doji patterns emerged in the 02:00 to 04:00 ET range, indicating indecision and potential exhaustion in the upward moves. A key support level appears to have formed around 1.1002–1.1005, with price testing this level multiple times. Resistance levels were seen around 1.1038–1.1040 and 1.1044–1.1045, with the latter showing strong rejection after initial bullish attempts.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have converged below the current price, indicating a bearish crossover that aligns with the downward price action. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is slightly above the 200-period MA, suggesting a neutral to mildly bearish stance. The price has fallen below the 200-day MA, which may indicate a longer-term bearish trend if the 50-day MA continues to decline.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has turned negative, with the histogram showing bearish divergence after a brief overbought phase in the early part of the day. RSI has fallen below the 50 level and is currently near 46, indicating weakening bullish momentum. A reading below 40 could signal a stronger bearish bias. There is also a bearish divergence between the RSI and price action after 04:00 ET, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show a clear expansion during the overnight session, especially between 01:00 and 03:00 ET, indicating heightened volatility. The price has remained below the lower band for much of the session, signaling oversold conditions. A recent contraction in the bands is emerging, suggesting a possible breakout in either direction. The current price is hovering just above the lower band, and a break below 1.1002 could trigger further selling pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover have spiked during key bearish phases, particularly between 06:30 and 08:00 ET, with large volume spikes coinciding with price declines. Notably, price and turnover are aligned in the bearish moves, suggesting confirmation of downward momentum. However, periods of low volume and turnover, especially between 02:30 and 04:00 ET, were accompanied by doji and indecisive candle patterns, suggesting temporary bearish pauses.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the most recent 15-minute swing (from 1.1045 to 1.1002), the 38.2% level is at 1.1023 and the 61.8% level is at 1.1013. The price tested the 1.1013 level multiple times but failed to hold above it, suggesting further support may be needed below that level. On a broader daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level lies near 1.1034, which appears to be a key psychological level that has been tested several times.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy involves a short-term sell signal upon the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart, confirmed by a close below the 20-period moving average and a RSI reading above 60. The strategy would target a stop loss just above the most recent swing high and a profit target aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Given the recent alignment of these signals between 06:30 and 06:45 ET, this strategy could have captured the subsequent decline to 1.1002. A key condition for the strategy is the confirmation of bearish divergence in the RSI, which occurred shortly after the pattern formation.