Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) as of 2025-09-25 12:00 ET

• Price action for AEURUSDT shows a bearish consolidation with key support tested below 1.0880.
• Momentum remains weak, with RSI hovering near 40 and no clear overbought or oversold conditions.
• Volatility decreased through the night, but sharp sell-offs re-emerged after 06:30 ET.
• Bollinger Band contraction and divergence between price and volume suggest potential for a breakout.
• Fibonacci retracement levels are key for near-term support and resistance monitoring.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.0919 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET and traded between 1.0937 and 1.0797 before closing at 1.0801 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-25. Total volume reached 46,408.7 units, with notional turnover amounting to 48,848.79 USD, reflecting uneven participation during key price swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish consolidation pattern following a failed attempt to break above 1.0910. A critical support level at 1.0880 was tested and breached around 06:30 ET, followed by a sharp decline to 1.0797. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed at 09:00 ET, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. A doji near 1.0812 at 11:45 ET may indicate indecision at the lower end of the trading range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA appears bearish as it crosses below the 50-period SMA, confirming the short-term downward bias. On the daily chart, price remains below the 50, 100, and 200-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias and suggesting a continuation of the downtrend if support levels hold.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed below the signal line, forming a bearish crossover, while the histogram shows diverging bearish momentum. The RSI remains in the neutral zone around 40, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting the market is not yet exhausted but lacks bullish conviction. Weak positive divergence noted around 13:45 ET.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a period of contraction during the night (02:00–05:30 ET), indicating low volatility. However, price later broke below the lower band after 06:30 ET, signaling increased bearish pressure. The current price of 1.0801 is within the lower half of the bands, suggesting a potential pullback toward the middle band or a continuation of the downward move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early morning hours, with notable spikes at 06:30–08:00 ET coinciding with the breakdown below 1.0880. Turnover, however, did not rise proportionally, indicating lower conviction in the move. A divergence between price and turnover is visible after 09:00 ET, hinting at potential exhaustion of the current bearish wave.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the 15-minute swing from 1.0919 to 1.0797, key Fibonacci levels are positioned at 38.2% (1.0855), 50% (1.0808), and 61.8% (1.0761). Price is currently near the 50% retracement level, suggesting a possible bounce or further consolidation. On the daily chart, key retracements remain aligned with the 1.0880–1.0797 range, indicating a similar bearish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias when price breaks below key support levels confirmed by both volume spikes and bearish candlestick patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing). A stop-loss could be placed just above the nearest resistance, while the initial target aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the current conditions and indicators, this strategy could be tested with a 72–96-hour time frame to assess risk-reward balance.