Market Overview for Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) - 2025-09-17

• Price opened at 1.1004 and closed at 1.0941, with a 24-hour low of 1.0934 and a high of 1.1059.
• Momentum slowed in the final hours, with RSI hovering near neutral and no clear overbought/oversold extremes.
• Volatility expanded early in the session, followed by a contraction as price consolidated near 1.0956.
• Notional turnover surged over 50,000 during key breakout attempts, but price failed to confirm these levels.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 1.1006–1.1004, suggesting a short-term shift in sentiment.

Anchored Coins AEUR/Tether (AEURUSDT) opened at 1.1004 on 2025-09-16 12:00 ET and closed at 1.0941 on 2025-09-17 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 1.1059 and a low of 1.0934 over the 24-hour period. Total volume amounted to 1,179,718.9 with a notional turnover of approximately $1,297,682.86.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias as it retraced from a mid-session high of 1.1059 back toward a key support level near 1.0956. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 1.1006–1.1004, which coincided with a volume spike and confirmed a potential short-term top. A notable bearish divergence appeared on the RSI, suggesting that bulls were losing strength. The price found temporary support at 1.0956, with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the morning’s bullish move at that level. A 61.8% retracement at ~1.0935 acted as a critical threshold, and price briefly tested it before bouncing.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover. The 50-period MA, currently at 1.098, acted as a resistance level in the late morning and afternoon. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA (not computed due to lack of historical daily data) would be relevant for a longer-term trend, but the 50-period MA likely remained above the 100-period MA, indicating a continuation of a broader bearish bias. Price tested and failed to break through these moving averages, confirming a bearish trend in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained negative throughout the session, confirming bearish momentum. A bearish crossover occurred in the early afternoon, aligning with the breakdown from 1.1004. The RSI hovered between 45 and 55 for most of the day, showing moderate momentum with no clear overbought or oversold signals. A divergence in the RSI occurred as price made lower lows while RSI only made a marginal new low, hinting at a potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early part of the session, with the upper band reaching 1.1059 and the lower band at 1.0952. Price then consolidated between the bands, with a contraction in volatility observed after 04:00 ET. The price closed near the lower Bollinger Band at 1.0941, suggesting bearish pressure. A breakout attempt from the upper band in the morning failed, with volume suggesting lack of conviction from buyers.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 110,000 in two key moments: first, at the time of the morning high near 1.1059, and second, during a failed attempt to break the 1.1006–1.1004 resistance. The notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a peak of ~$123,000 during the first large-volume bar. A divergence between volume and price was observed in the afternoon, where volume dropped as price continued lower, suggesting weakening bearish momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key bullish swing from 1.095 to 1.1059, the 38.2% level at 1.098 and the 61.8% level at 1.0935 acted as pivotal price zones. Price found resistance at 1.098 and tested the 61.8% level twice, failing to break through. These levels appear to be structurally significant, and a break below 1.0935 could trigger a new leg lower.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy would benefit from the recent bearish pattern and Fibonacci levels. A sell entry could be considered on a close below the 61.8% retracement at ~1.0935, with a stop above 1.0956 to manage risk. A target of 1.091–1.089 aligns with the next Fibonacci level and potential psychological support. This approach leverages both price action and volatility structure to identify a high-probability short trade in a consolidating market.