Market Overview for Ampleforth Governance Token/Bitcoin (FORTHBTC) – 2025-11-02

• FORTHBTC opened at $0.00002037 and closed at $0.00001980, down 0.28% over 24 hours.
• Price fell below key support at $0.00002025 after a bearish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart.
• Volatility expanded as price swung between $0.00002049 and $0.00001976, with volume surging near the session high.
• RSI approached oversold territory (28), suggesting possible near-term bounce if buyers step in.
• Turnover dropped sharply after 08:00 ET as bearish momentum faded, pointing to waning short-term interest.

The FORTHBTC pair opened at $0.00002037 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at $0.00001980 by 12:00 ET, with a high of $0.00002049 and a low of $0.00001976. Over the 24-hour period, total volume amounted to 3,078.81 units, translating to a turnover of approximately $61.39 at the average price. The price action shows a consistent bearish drift after a brief attempt to reclaim earlier highs.

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals several bearish candlestick formations, including an engulfing pattern that marked the start of the downward move. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both trended lower, indicating a short-term bearish bias. Price is currently below both lines, reinforcing the downtrend. The 50-period moving average is currently at $0.00002012, acting as a dynamic resistance level.

MACD has turned negative with a bearish crossover, while RSI has dipped to 28, nearing the 30 oversold level. This suggests the possibility of a short-term bounce, though a sustained reversal would require a clear break above the 20-period MA. Bollinger Bands have widened, reflecting increased volatility, and price has spent much of the session near the lower band, a typical sign of oversold conditions.

Volume spiked near the session high but then sharply declined after 08:00 ET, coinciding with the breakdown of the $0.00002025 support level. This divergence between price and volume suggests fading momentum. Fibonacci retracements from the key swing high at $0.00002049 to the recent low at $0.00001976 indicate potential support at 38.2% ($0.00001998) and 61.8% ($0.00001990), which could be tested in the next 24 hours.

The RSI has been a key feature of this analysis, with its current reading at 28 providing a potential buying opportunity for contrarian traders. This brings us to the backtesting strategy under consideration.

Backtest Hypothesis
To refine the strategy, it’s essential to confirm the exact ticker format for FORTHBTC, as the data source currently returns an error for the symbol. Common variations include "FORTH-BTC", "FORTH/BTC", or "FORTHBTC" depending on the exchange (e.g., Binance, KuCoin). If you can specify the exchange or confirm the ticker format, the RSI(14) data can be retrieved accurately.

Additionally, the current plan is to use the standard RSI(14) oversold threshold at 30. However, if you prefer a stricter or more relaxed threshold (e.g., 25 or 40), please adjust accordingly. Once confirmed, a backtest can be run from 2022-01-01 to today, generating buy signals on RSI below the threshold and holding each position for exactly 5 trading days. A performance report including returns and drawdowns, as well as an interactive chart, will follow.