Market Overview for Altlayer/Tether (ALTUSDT)

• Price drifted lower by 7.1% over 24 hours amid bearish momentum and volume-driven selling.
• RSI signaled oversold territory near 28.5, but lacks immediate bullish confirmation.
• Bollinger Bands tightened during late ET hours, hinting at potential directional breakout.
• Volatility spiked during the 19:00–21:30 ET session, with high-low spreads exceeding 1.5%.

Altlayer/Tether (ALTUSDT) opened at $0.02037 on October 21, 2025, at 12:00 ET and closed the following day at $0.01884 at the same time. The pair reached a high of $0.0206 and a low of $0.01848 during the 24-hour period. Total volume traded amounted to 39,486,400 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $754,848. The price action reflected bearish dominance, especially during the early to mid-ET hours, as selling pressure accelerated through key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a sustained breakdown from key psychological resistance levels around $0.02 and $0.0205. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 15-minute chart during the 17:00–17:15 ET window, confirming a shift in sentiment. A sequence of lower highs and lower lows followed, with no meaningful bullish reversal patterns emerging in the last 12 hours. The price action has stalled near the 0.0188–0.0189 support zone, where a cluster of previous lows and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement levels congregate.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20 and 50 SMA, indicating a bearish bias. The 20 SMA sat at $0.0202, and the 50 SMA at $0.0204. For the daily chart, the 50 SMA at $0.0208 and 100 SMA at $0.0213 both acted as overhead resistance during the sell-off. The 200 SMA, at $0.0216, remains a long-term resistance. Price has not shown signs of retesting the 50 SMA in a bullish manner, suggesting short-term bearish continuation.

MACD & RSI

The RSI closed near 28.5, indicating oversold conditions, but without a clear divergence between price and momentum. The MACD (12,26,9) crossed below the signal line in the morning ET window, reinforcing the bearish trend. The MACD histogram has remained negative throughout the period, with a recent narrowing suggesting potential exhaustion in the downside move.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened during the 20:30–23:00 ET window, with price hovering near the middle band. The recent volatility spike led to a widening of the bands, with the upper band reaching $0.0206 and the lower band falling to $0.01848 by the end of the period. Price has since consolidated near the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure and potential for a breakout if support breaks.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 17:00–19:45 ET window, particularly around the 21:30 candle, where over 3.75 million units traded. This coincided with a sharp drop of 230 basis points from $0.01949 to $0.01912. The notional turnover peaked during this period at over $71,000. Despite the heavy volume, the price failed to close above key support levels afterward, hinting at a lack of follow-through buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high of $0.0206 and swing low of $0.01848, the price has tested the 61.8% level at $0.01909 and currently hovers near the 50% level at $0.01956. A break below $0.0187 (38.2% level) would suggest further downside potential, with the next support target at $0.01848.

Backtest Hypothesis

The observed price structure and momentum indicators suggest a potential for a low-risk, time-bound entry opportunity should both the RSI and bearish candlestick pattern align. The backtest strategy described earlier — using the RSI (14) and Bearish Engulfing pattern to generate sell signals — could be adapted for this market. On this 24-hour chart, a Bearish Engulfing formed at $0.02048–$0.02016, coinciding with RSI near 48.5, which would not trigger a signal. However, if the current RSI reaches 30 and a strong bearish pattern emerges, an entry on the next open could be considered for a short-term trade. Given the high volatility and potential exhaustion in the downside, a one-day exit rule aligns well with the risk profile of this trade.