Market Overview for Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT)

• Price dropped from 1.295 to 0.952 before recovering to 1.000
• Volatility surged midday with large range candles
• Momentum stalled near 1.02–1.04 despite increased turnover
• RSI signaled oversold conditions, but volume did not confirm
• Bollinger Bands show a recent contraction, hinting at potential breakout

Price Action Summary

The Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT) opened at 1.281 on 2025-10-10 12:00 ET, reached a high of 1.297, and a low of 0.251 before closing at 0.985 on 2025-10-11 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 33,452,749.57, and total turnover was approximately 29,188,525.99 USDT. The pair experienced a significant selloff in the late afternoon before stabilizing and showing a modest recovery in the early morning.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed several key levels of support and resistance. A notable bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 19:30 ET, which led to a sharp decline to 0.486. This was followed by a series of smaller bearish candles, confirming weak sentiment. On the recovery side, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 02:15 ET, helping push the price back to 1.033. A doji candle at 04:15 ET suggests indecision around the 1.018–1.021 range. A critical support level appears to be forming around 0.98–0.99, with a resistance level near 1.01–1.03.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed into a bearish crossover during the early selloff but began to align with the upward movement from 02:00 ET. The 50-period MA acted as a temporary floor during the morning recovery. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is above the 200-period MA, suggesting a long-term bullish trend has not yet reversed, though short-term momentum is bearish.

MACD showed a strong bearish divergence in the late afternoon, confirming the large sell-off. However, the MACD crossed back above zero by the morning, indicating renewed short-term bullish momentum. RSI hit an oversold level of ~25 during the selloff but has since recovered to the neutral zone (50–60), indicating a potential pause in the downside.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a marked expansion during the afternoon selloff, reflecting heightened volatility. Price dropped below the lower band at 0.486 before consolidating within the bands in the morning. The recent contraction of the bands suggests that the market may be preparing for a breakout or reversal. Price currently sits near the middle band, indicating that volatility is stabilizing but momentum remains mixed.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked sharply during the selloff, particularly between 19:30 and 21:00 ET, with turnover reaching ~2.25 million USDT in a single 15-minute candle. However, during the recovery, volume increased only moderately, suggesting that the buying pressure may not yet be strong enough to sustain a major rebound. There is a divergence between the price and volume during the morning consolidation phase, indicating cautious optimism among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 15-minute swing from 1.297 to 0.486, the 38.2% retracement is at 0.868 and the 61.8% level at 1.071. Price briefly touched both levels during the morning rebound. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the previous major high is near 1.045, and the 61.8% level is at 1.015. Price currently hovers just above the 61.8% daily retracement, suggesting it may be consolidating before a potential decision on direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (1.015) with confirmation from a bullish candlestick pattern (e.g., a bullish engulfing or morning star). A stop-loss is placed below the 50-period moving average to protect against a retest of bearish sentiment. A take-profit is set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (1.045) with a trailing stop at 0.5% below the entry price. This approach seeks to capture short-term momentum in a consolidating market, leveraging both Fibonacci structure and candlestick confirmation for timing.