Market Overview for Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT)

• Price surged above $2.10 on 24th September, reaching a peak of $2.126, followed by a consolidation phase.• Volatility spiked during the early hours of 25th, with a sharp drop to $1.989 and subsequent recovery to $2.035.• RSI signaled overbought conditions during the peak before correcting, indicating potential reversal.• Bollinger Bands widened during the drop, showing increased volatility; price remains within bands.• Volume surged during price swings, confirming key support and resistance levels were tested.

Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT) opened at $2.059 on 24 September at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $2.126 before closing at $2.035 at 12:00 ET on 25 September. The token traded between $1.989 and $2.126, with a total volume of 803,220.11 and a notional turnover of approximately $1,663,485.42 over the 24-hour window.

Structurally, ALPINEUSDT displayed a bearish reversal pattern after the high of $2.126, with a long upper shadow and a close near the session low. Key support levels formed at $2.070 and $2.035, while resistance levels were observed at $2.100 and $2.120. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged on the 15-minute chart during the early morning hours, signaling potential downward pressure. A doji formed near $2.086, suggesting indecision among traders ahead of further direction.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart intersected during the drop to $1.989, indicating a potential shift in trend. The 50-period MA moved below the 20-period MA during this phase, forming a bearish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA earlier in the week, suggesting a potential short-term bullish bias, though this has been challenged by recent bearish price action.

MACD showed a bearish crossover as the line dipped below the signal line during the downward correction, confirming short-term bearish momentum. RSI reached overbought territory around 80 during the peak and has since fallen into neutral to oversold conditions, suggesting possible near-term support at key levels. Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the price drop to $1.989, indicating a period of high volatility. Price has since settled closer to the middle band, suggesting a potential consolidation phase ahead.

Volume surged during key price moves, particularly the drop to $1.989 and the subsequent recovery to $2.035. Notional turnover spiked during these periods, aligning with price action and confirming the strength of the moves. However, a divergence appeared in the late hours as volume declined during the consolidation phase, suggesting caution in predicting further directional movement. This may signal a potential sideways or range-bound period in the short term.

Fibonacci retracement levels applied to the most recent 15-minute swing identified a 61.8% level near $2.070 and a 38.2% level at $2.105. The daily Fibonacci retracement levels showed strong support at $2.034 and resistance at $2.100, aligning with observed price behavior and offering potential entry or exit points for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis
The proposed backtesting strategy involves a combination of RSI and volume confirmation during key Fibonacci retracement levels. A long entry is triggered when RSI exits oversold conditions (RSI < 30) and volume increases, confirming a breakout from Fibonacci support. A short entry is considered when RSI enters overbought territory (RSI > 70) and volume diverges, signaling potential exhaustion. The technical analysis aligns with the strategy’s use of momentum and volume indicators, suggesting the 20-period MA and Bollinger Bands can serve as additional confirmation for entries and exits. Given the recent price action, this strategy could be applied at the $2.034 support and $2.100 resistance levels.