Market Overview: Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT) on 2025-10-13

• ALPINEUSDT opened at 1.014 and closed at 0.980 with a 24-hour range of 0.963–1.018
• Price consolidated between key 0.975–0.995 range, forming multiple bullish and bearish reversal patterns
• RSI hit oversold levels (<30) and MACD showed bearish divergence in the late session • Notional turnover surged over $10M during the 12:00–14:00 ET window, reflecting heightened short-term interest • Volatility expanded after 17:00 ET as price broke below 0.98, forming a bearish continuation bias

The Alpine F1 Team Fan Token/Tether (ALPINEUSDT) opened at 1.014 at 12:00 ET–1 and closed at 0.980 by 12:00 ET, with a 24-hour high of 1.018 and a low of 0.963. Total volume amounted to 4,556,033.30 (15-min aggregated), and notional turnover reached approximately $4.6M over the 24-hour period. The pair exhibited choppy momentum early, consolidating between 0.975 and 0.995 before a bearish break and acceleration in the late hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a series of bearish continuation patterns, including a bearish engulfing candle at 17:00 ET and a hanging man at 19:45 ET. A key support level appears to form around 0.963–0.975, with resistance at 0.988–0.993. The 0.98 level acted as a temporary pivot point, though failed to hold as bears gained control in the second half of the session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA dipped below the 50-period SMA in the final hours, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day MA appears to be forming a key resistance zone near 1.0, with the 100-day and 200-day MAs reinforcing a bearish alignment.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the late session, forming bearish divergences that aligned with lower lows. RSI dropped below 30, indicating oversold conditions, but failed to generate a bullish reversal. The divergence between price and momentum metrics suggests further downward correction could follow.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 17:00 ET, with price breaking below the lower band at 0.963. The widened bands suggest increased uncertainty and speculative trading. Price remains near the lower band, increasing the probability of further sideways consolidation or a pullback toward 0.955.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 12:00–14:00 ET window, particularly around the 0.996–0.992 price range. Notional turnover spiked above $10M during that time, suggesting accumulation or distribution activity. However, volume during the bearish break at 17:00 ET was moderate, indicating weak conviction from sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings indicate the 0.98 level is a 38.2% retracement from the 1.018 high to the 0.963 low. The 61.8% retracement sits at 0.975, aligning with the key support area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent leg up is at 0.992, now acting as resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish momentum and overbought-to-oversold transition seen in this 24-hour period, a backtest strategy could be built around identifying key bearish candlestick patterns such as the bearish engulfing and hanging man, and then exiting at the next confirmed support level. A practical backtesting approach could involve selecting a liquid ETF such as SPY and using the rolling 20-day low as the defined support level. For this analysis, a reasonable default could be to test the performance of bearish patterns from 2022-01-01 to today using SPY with a 20-day support exit rule. This method would quantify the effectiveness of such patterns in predicting and capitalizing on bearish reversals in a broader market context.