Market Overview: ALGOUSDT – 2025-10-04

• ALGOUSDT traded in a narrow range after a sharp 15-minute dip below 0.222.
• Volume spiked during the 17:15–18:00 ET selloff but faded later in the session.
• RSI remains in neutral territory; no clear overbought or oversold signals observed.
• Price found immediate support near 0.2182–0.2192 and bounced with moderate volume.
• Bollinger Bands show compressed volatility during the first half, with expansion in the last 6 hours.

15-Minute Open-High-Low-Close Summary

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-04, Algorand/Tether (ALGOUSDT) opened at 0.2262, reached a high of 0.231, a low of 0.2159, and closed at 0.2163 by 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume traded was approximately 30,740,433.0 and the notional turnover amounted to roughly $6,582,872.66. Price action was driven by two distinct phases: a short-lived bullish move early in the session and a more sustained bearish correction in the late evening.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a key bearish engulfing pattern around 17:15–17:30 ET when it closed below the opening of the previous candle after a sharp decline. A doji appeared near 0.2192–0.2194 as the market found a short-term support zone. This area coincided with a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the 0.2162–0.2213 swing, which acted as a temporary floor. Further support could emerge around 0.2182–0.2184, a level where volume increased during a consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

The RSI oscillated between 30 and 60 throughout the session, indicating a balanced market sentiment without extreme momentum. It briefly touched 40 as a potential oversold threshold at 0.2192 but failed to break below it. The MACD line crossed below the signal line during the 17:15–19:00 ET selloff, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram turned negative and remained so for most of the session, reflecting sustained pressure from short sellers.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA moved down sharply after the 17:15 ET selloff, crossing the 50-EMA to the downside, forming a death cross. This crossover reinforced bearish bias and provided a reference point for short-term sellers. Price remained below both moving averages for the majority of the session. Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the late afternoon as volatility increased, with price bouncing off the lower band around 0.2182–0.2184. This suggests a temporary bottoming scenario, but further expansion could signal ongoing uncertainty.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked around 17:15–18:15 ET, coinciding with the sharp decline in price. The total turnover during this period was approximately $1,236,000, or ~19% of the total 24-hour turnover. In contrast, the late-night consolidation phase saw lower volume and more erratic price movements, indicating reduced conviction from traders. Price and turnover aligned during the bearish phase but diverged later in the evening, as volume declined while price continued to move sideways.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.2162–0.2213 swing defined a critical range, with the 0.2192–0.2194 level acting as a pivot point. The 61.8% retracement of this swing is at 0.2175, which is a likely target if the current bearish trend continues. The 38.2% level at 0.2192 appears to have been rejected twice, indicating a potential turning point. Traders may watch 0.2175 and 0.2192 as key inflection zones in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on the 15-minute MACD cross and Fibonacci retracement levels could provide a framework for short-term trading. The hypothesis would involve entering short positions when the MACD line crosses below the signal line, particularly near key retracement levels like 0.2192 and 0.2175. Stop-losses would be placed above immediate resistance levels, and take-profit targets would align with the next Fibonacci level or 20-EMA. This approach appears to align with the observed price and volume dynamics on 2025-10-04.